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In North Carolina, Budd and Beasley in Statistical Dead Heat for U.S. Senate

In North Carolina’s race for U.S. Senate, Republican Congressman Ted Budd continues to lead former state Supreme Court Justice Cheri Beasley. New results from a poll by Emerson College and The Hill show Budd with 46 percent support of surveyed voters, compared to 43 percent for Beasley. Budd’s three-point lead matches the poll’s margin of error, putting the candidates in a statistical dead heat.

The Emerson College poll comes two weeks after an Eastern Carolina University poll showed Budd with a three point lead but slightly more of the vote, leading Beasley 49 percent to 43 percent. During the first week of September, Trafalgar Group showed Budd leading by a three-point margin, with 47 percent of surveyed voters support vs. 44 percent supporting Beasley.

KEY DATA FROM THE EMERSON COLLEGE POLL:

  • Budd leads among men by 16 points while Beasley leads among women by nine points.
  • 81 percent of of the undecided voters are women whose most important voting issue is abortion access (28 percent).”
  • 48 percent of North Carolina voters have a favorable view of Budd, while 46% have a favorable view of Beasley.
  • 38 percent have an unfavorable view of Budd, compared to 40% have an unfavorable view of Beasley.
  • The economy is the most important issue in determining 41% of voters’ November decision, followed by threats to democracy (14%), abortion (12%), and healthcare (11%).
  • 69 percent of voters who say the economy is their most important issue plan to vote for Budd. Seventy-seven percent of those who say abortion is their top issue support Beasley. Those who find threats to democracy to be the most important issue are more split: 53% support Beasley and 42% support Budd.”
  • A majority of voters (59%) say they are much more likely (46%) or somewhat more likely (12%) to vote in the 2022 elections due to the overturning of Roe v. Wade. Thirty-five percent say it makes no difference, and 17% say they are somewhat less likely (2%) or much less likely (5%). A plurality of voters (39%) think the North Carolina legislature should make it easier to access abortion, while 32% think the legislature should make it harder to access abortion, and 29% say they should not pass abortion laws.
  • Of the 46% of voters who say they are much more likely to vote because of the overturning of Roe v. Wade, 60% support Beasley and 29% Budd. However, voters who say the overturning of Roe makes no difference on their vote break for Budd over Beasley 51% to 25%,” Kimball said.
  • Fifty-seven percent of voters support expansion of Medicaid coverage for up to 600,000 low income people in North Carolina, 18% oppose Medicaid expansion, and 26% are neutral or have no opinion.
  • Voters are split on the federal government’s decision to forgive $10,000 of student loan debt for borrowers making under $125,000 per year: 32% think it is too much action, 26% think it is just about the right amount of action, 20% think it is not enough action, and 23% think no student loan debt should be forgiven.

Maxwell Frost – Like AOC, but More Extreme, Less Qualified

Overcrowded primary elections often produce inexperienced candidates, and Maxwell Frost is no exception. Frost, the Democratic Party’s nominee in Florida’s 10th Congressional District, won the Primary Election with only plurality of his party’s support, finishing with only 34% of the vote.

Frost, who is 25 years old and has no experience working in government, would be the first member of Generation Z elected to Congress. As an Uber driver, Frost reports to no supervisor, and unlike the internationally-known left wing Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Frost has no college degree.

According to Frost’s responses to Ballotpedia’s Q&A, he believes that he deserves to be entrusted with your vote because he has experience as a community organizer, yet Frost mentions no specific cases or experience involving negotiation to reach any notable compromise or professional agreement with an opposing party (business or political) for any policy at any point during his young lifetime.

On both social and economic issues, Frost’s views mirror socialist Bernie Sanders and are arguably the most extreme left of Democratic candidates in Florida who are running for U.S. Congress.

Despite those usual obstacles to electoral success, Frost is the heavy favorite to win in November, solely because he is running in a district centrally located in one of the most Democratic-skewed areaas among all of Florida’s districts, by proportion. Ranked-choice voting system advocates could easily cite Frost’s victory in the Democratic Primary as a leading example of why the current plurality structure is in need of reform.

Frost’s top three agendas if he is elected to office are:

1. “Environmental justice”, including immediate implementation of “Green New Deal” policies which, even if they were practical, would exacerbate existing energy grid challenges crippling states such as California.

2. Universal healthcare, on a “Medicare for all” approach, despite that fact that Medicare itself is already the largest unfunded future liability which will be insovlent, along with social security, within the next 10 to 15 years.

3. Gun Control: Including confiscation of semi-automatic firearms, often given the misnomer of “assault weapons.” Semiautomatic guns, including pistols, are the most reliable form of self defense for responsible gun owners when their homes are threatened by armed home invaders.

Frost’s opponents include Calvin Wimbish: a Republican rival who is a former Army Green Beret and old enough to be Frost’s grandfather, along with independent candidates Jason Holic and Dr. Usha Jain. Frost is heavily favored to win due to the fact that Democrats have more than a 140,000 registered voter lead over Republicans in Orange County. To pull off an upset win in November Republicans need higher turnout plus at least 54% of Independent voters support.

DeSantis, Rubio Maintain Leads in Latest Polls

Democrats haven’t controlled the Florida Governor’s Mansion since the mid 90’s, and Ron DeSantis appears likely to keep that streak intact. Poll results today published by USA Today/Suffolk show DeSantis leading Crist, 48-41. Earlier this month, a Fox35 Orlando poll showed DeSantis with a five-point advantage over Crist. The news comes in the wake of DeSantis routing undocumented immigrants on a flight that connected in Florida en route from Texas to Martha’s Vineyard, Massachusetts.

In the race for one of Florida’s seats in the U.S. Senate, Marco Rubio holds a slim lead over Val Demings, leading the current Congresswoman, 45 to 41, with Libertarian Dennis Misigoy and independents Steven Grant and Tuan “TQ” Nguyen all pulling one percent each. Rubio once enjoyed a large lead over Demings, but the race has tightened in recent months.

For more stories on Florida politics, visit our Florida political news section.

Stacey Abrams Still Trails Brian Kemp, Even in AJC Poll

With fewer than 50 days remaining until the 2022 Midterm Election, Georgia’s Democratic Gubernatorial candidate Stacy Abrams is trailing Governor Brian Kemp by a wide margin in two recent polls, including the Atlanta Journal Constitution, known as one of the most left-leaning publications in the Southeast.

Georgia talk show host Ben Burnett says that voters across the state have become disillusioned with Abrams’ antics as a perennial candidate.

“Abrams is a disingenuous and tired actor to the people in Georgia,” Burnett said. “I think people know she’s gotten rich as the serial candidate. She was the reason Atlanta lost the All Star game. And Even Democrats can’t deny that Brian Kemp’s desire to keep Georgia open during covid was the fair fight, but it was the right fight. She reminds me of Charlie Crist only Charlie has shown an ability to win statewide.”

Abrams, who has never led Kemp in any of the polls used for the Real Clear Politics average, trailed Kemp by eight points in the AJC poll and she trailed Kemp by 11 points in a Marist University poll. Kemp’s sizable lead in the Marist poll puts Abrams well outside the margin of error. According to Marist, the poll surveyed 1,322 Georgia adults by phone interviews, online polls, and texts.

“The samples were then combined and balanced to reflect the 2020 AmericanCommunity Survey 5-year estimates for age, gender, income, and race,” Marist’s poll disclaimer reads. “Regional adjustments were made for turnout in similar elections. Results are statistically significant within ±3.4 percentage points.”

For more stories on Georgia politics, visit our Georgia political news section.

New Poll Shows Raphael Warnock Ahead of Herschel Walker

With the balance of power in the U.S. Senate possibly at stake, the heated race in between Sen. Raphael Warnock and Herschel Walker has elevated Georgia’s open seat as one of the most watched in the country.

Today, a new poll from Quinnipiac University showed Warnock leading Walker, 52 percent to 46 percent among 1,278 likely Georgia voters who were surveyed from September 8th– 12th, with a margin of error of +/- 2.7
percentage points.

Notable stats from the poll include:

  • Democrats (97 – 3 percent) and independents (55 – 41 percent) back Warnock, while Republicans (91 – 6 percent) back Walker.
  • Nearly all likely voters (96 percent) who support a candidate in the Senate race say their minds are made up about how they will cast their vote, while 4 percent say they might change their minds before the election.
  • Fifty percent of likely voters have a favorable opinion of Raphael Warnock, while 44 percent have an
    unfavorable opinion of him.
  • Forty percent of likely voters have a favorable opinion of Herschel Walker, while 51 percent have an
    unfavorable opinion of him.
  • Nineteen percent of likely voters say one reason for their vote for U.S. Senator will be to express support for Joe Biden, while 29 percent say one reason for their vote for U.S. Senator will be to express opposition to Joe Biden, and 50 percent say Joe Biden will not be a factor in their vote.
  • Fourteen percent of likely voters say one reason for their vote for U.S. Senator will be to express support for Donald Trump, while 18 percent say one reason for their vote for U.S. Senator will be to express opposition to Donald Trump, and 67 percent say Donald Trump will not be a factor in their vote.
  • Asked to choose the most urgent issue facing Georgia today, inflation (41 percent) ranks first among
    likely voters followed by abortion (12 percent), election laws (12 percent), and gun violence (12 percent).
  • Among Republicans, inflation (73 percent) ranks first with no other issue reaching double digits.
  • Among Democrats, the top issues are abortion (23 percent), election laws (17 percent), racial inequality (17 percent), gun violence (14 percent), and health care (12 percent).
  • Among independents, inflation (43 percent) ranks first followed by election laws (13 percent), abortion
    (12 percent), and gun violence (12 percent).
  • For the 2022 general elections, a majority of likely voters (54 percent) plan to vote in person at an early
    voting location, 33 percent plan to vote in person on Election Day, and 12 percent plan to vote early by mail or absentee ballot.

Since Joe Biden’s surprise victory over Donald Trump in 2020, Georgia has eclipsed Florida as the South’s top swing state.

Prior to Quinnipiac Poll Results published this week, a Trafalgar Group poll showed Walker leading Warnock, 48 percent to 47 percent. and an Emerson College poll showed Walker ahead of Warnock, 47 to 44.3., but that apparent turn of fortune for Walker proved to be a mirage upon further inspection, because they were the same two polls that showed Walker leading Warnock before Walker’s summer drought, when he trailed in seven of eight polls, and tied Warnock 46-46 in an early June poll conducted by Eastern Carolina University.

DEMOCRATS SHOULDN’T PUT TOO MUCH CONFIDENCE IN QUINNIPIAC

Georgia Democrats can ask their neighbors to the south just how much confidence they have in Quinnipiac’s gauge of senate and gubernatorial races. In the 2018 Midterm Election, Quinnipiac’s final poll before that election showed former Tallahasee Mayor Andrew Gillum leading then Congressman Ron DeSantis by seven percent, and former Senator Bill Nelson leading then Governor Rick Scott by seven percent for Senate.

DeSantis Leads Crist in Fox Orlando Poll

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has a 5 percent lead over Crist in the latest poll conducted by Insider Advantage and WOFL Fox 35 Orlando, leading 50-45 over Charlie Crist, a former Republican who served only one term as Florida Governor after a failed Senate campaign for the 2010 midterm. Crist left the Republican Primary as Marco Rubio was dominating him in primary polling. Crist ran as an independent yet still lost to Rubio in the general election that year. Crist tried another run for the Governor’s office in 2014, but lost to then Governor Rick Scott. The lone victory in Crist’s campaign resume for the past 10 years was his 2016 win for Florida’s 13th Congressional District.

DeSantis enjoys staunch support from his own party and leads Crist among every age group surveyed, according to his poll. However, Crist carries a slight lead among independent voters, according to Insider Advantage founder Matt Towery.

For more stories on Florida politics, visit our Florida political news section.

New Poll Results Show Budd with Slight Lead over Beasley in North Carolina Senate Race

Trafalgar Group published results from its latest poll on North Carolina’s Senate race between Ted Budd (R) and Cheri Beasley (D). Their survey of 1,079 North Carolina voters showed Budd with a 3 percent lead over Beasley, with Budd earning 47 percent of the vote to Beasley’s 44 percent. The poll’s margin of error was 2.9 percent, giving Budd the smallest possible distance from a statistical dead heat. Libertarian Shannon Bray got 1.8 percent of the vote, which could make him a spoiler in November if Budd can’t pull away from Beasley.

Budd, a sitting Congressman. Beasley is an attorney who served as the chief justice of the North Carolina Supreme Court from 2019 to 2020. The Trafalgar poll results were published less than a week after a poll by the heavily-left-slanted Public Policy Polling released its latest poll results showing Beasley leading Budd by one percent, with 42 percent of the vote to Budd’s 41 percent, and a four percent margin of error.

With the Senate balance of power potentially dependent on the outcome of this race, we’re seeing yet another instance of North Carolina gaining national attention. At this rate, if Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and Senate Marco Rubio win their respective races by more than five points, North Carolina may surpass Florida as the nation’s most crucial swing state for 2024.

Raphael Warnock Will Debate Herschel Walker, with Conditions

The US Senate campaign between Georgia’s Raphael Warnock and Herschel Walker reached a new level of intensity today.

According to a report from the Atlanta Journal Constitution, Warnock challenged Walker to a debate in Savannah with the agreement that neither candidate will receive topics in advance, and another debate will be scheduled for Macon or Atlanta.

“It’s time for Herschel Walker to stop playing games,” said Quentin Fulks, Warnock’s campaign manager. “The job of a U.S. senator isn’t one where you know the topics ahead of time or get a cheat sheet, and Herschel Walker shouldn’t need one to find the courage to walk on a debate stage.”

Recent polls show Walker with a slim lead over Warnock, and the lead falls within the margin of error in both polls.

Last month, Walker declined an invitation to a debate in Macon that would have been televised. His rejection came as no surprise due to the timing of the invitation, which came within a few weeks of a revelation that Walker was the father of multiple people who he had not disclosed to the public or even his own campaign team. It marked one of several summer setbacks for Walker, who trailed each poll against Warnock from May through July.