With the balance of power in the U.S. Senate possibly at stake, the heated race in between Sen. Raphael Warnock and Herschel Walker has elevated Georgia’s open seat as one of the most watched in the country.
Today, a new poll from Quinnipiac University showed Warnock leading Walker, 52 percent to 46 percent among 1,278 likely Georgia voters who were surveyed from September 8th– 12th, with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percentage points.
Notable stats from the poll include:
Democrats (97 – 3 percent) and independents (55 – 41 percent) back Warnock, while Republicans (91 – 6 percent) back Walker.
Nearly all likely voters (96 percent) who support a candidate in the Senate race say their minds are made up about how they will cast their vote, while 4 percent say they might change their minds before the election.
Fifty percent of likely voters have a favorable opinion of Raphael Warnock, while 44 percent have an unfavorable opinion of him.
Forty percent of likely voters have a favorable opinion of Herschel Walker, while 51 percent have an unfavorable opinion of him.
Nineteen percent of likely voters say one reason for their vote for U.S. Senator will be to express support for Joe Biden, while 29 percent say one reason for their vote for U.S. Senator will be to express opposition to Joe Biden, and 50 percent say Joe Biden will not be a factor in their vote.
Fourteen percent of likely voters say one reason for their vote for U.S. Senator will be to express support for Donald Trump, while 18 percent say one reason for their vote for U.S. Senator will be to express opposition to Donald Trump, and 67 percent say Donald Trump will not be a factor in their vote.
Asked to choose the most urgent issue facing Georgia today, inflation (41 percent) ranks first among likely voters followed by abortion (12 percent), election laws (12 percent), and gun violence (12 percent).
Among Republicans, inflation (73 percent) ranks first with no other issue reaching double digits.
Among Democrats, the top issues are abortion (23 percent), election laws (17 percent), racial inequality (17 percent), gun violence (14 percent), and health care (12 percent).
Among independents, inflation (43 percent) ranks first followed by election laws (13 percent), abortion (12 percent), and gun violence (12 percent).
For the 2022 general elections, a majority of likely voters (54 percent) plan to vote in person at an early voting location, 33 percent plan to vote in person on Election Day, and 12 percent plan to vote early by mail or absentee ballot.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has a 5 percent lead over Crist in the latest poll conducted by Insider Advantage and WOFL Fox 35 Orlando, leading 50-45 over Charlie Crist, a former Republican who served only one term as Florida Governor after a failed Senate campaign for the 2010 midterm. Crist left the Republican Primary as Marco Rubio was dominating him in primary polling. Crist ran as an independent yet still lost to Rubio in the general election that year. Crist tried another run for the Governor’s office in 2014, but lost to then Governor Rick Scott. The lone victory in Crist’s campaign resume for the past 10 years was his 2016 win for Florida’s 13th Congressional District.
DeSantis enjoys staunch support from his own party and leads Crist among every age group surveyed, according to his poll. However, Crist carries a slight lead among independent voters, according to Insider Advantage founder Matt Towery.
Trafalgar Group published results from its latest poll on North Carolina’s Senate race between Ted Budd (R) and Cheri Beasley (D). Their survey of 1,079 North Carolina voters showed Budd with a 3 percent lead over Beasley, with Budd earning 47 percent of the vote to Beasley’s 44 percent. The poll’s margin of error was 2.9 percent, giving Budd the smallest possible distance from a statistical dead heat. Libertarian Shannon Bray got 1.8 percent of the vote, which could make him a spoiler in November if Budd can’t pull away from Beasley.
Budd, a sitting Congressman. Beasley is an attorney who served as the chief justice of the North Carolina Supreme Court from 2019 to 2020. The Trafalgar poll results were published less than a week after a poll by the heavily-left-slanted Public Policy Polling released its latest poll results showing Beasley leading Budd by one percent, with 42 percent of the vote to Budd’s 41 percent, and a four percent margin of error.
With the Senate balance of power potentially dependent on the outcome of this race, we’re seeing yet another instance of North Carolina gaining national attention. At this rate, if Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and Senate Marco Rubio win their respective races by more than five points, North Carolina may surpass Florida as the nation’s most crucial swing state for 2024.
The US Senate campaign between Georgia’s Raphael Warnock and Herschel Walker reached a new level of intensity today.
According to a report from the Atlanta Journal Constitution, Warnock challenged Walker to a debate in Savannah with the agreement that neither candidate will receive topics in advance, and another debate will be scheduled for Macon or Atlanta.
“It’s time for Herschel Walker to stop playing games,” said Quentin Fulks, Warnock’s campaign manager. “The job of a U.S. senator isn’t one where you know the topics ahead of time or get a cheat sheet, and Herschel Walker shouldn’t need one to find the courage to walk on a debate stage.”
A former ambassador has entered Kentucky’s Gubernatorial race. Kelly Craft, who served as the United States’ Ambassador to Canada from 2017-2019, officially declared her candidacy in Kentucky’s Republican gubernatorial primary. Craft, who served under former President Donald Trump, will compete with multiple Republicans for the nomination. Ultimately, the party’s nominee will be tasked with unseating the incumbent, Andy Beshear. Despite Kentucky voter’s long-running commitment to Senators Rand Paul and Mitch McConnell, the state hasn’t consistently elected Republicans for governor.
Earlier today, Craft released a statement and a video to announce her campaign:
“I’m Kelly Craft and I am running for Governor of Kentucky because I know our best days are ahead of us. This movement is for all of us who still believe that we can lead in education, that government doesn’t get a seat at our kitchen table, and that our kids should grow up in safe neighborhoods. I believe we have Kentucky’s promise within reach—let’s achieve it together. Watch my story and join our conservative movement here: www.KellyCraft.com.” – Craft said.
Two new polls on Marco Rubio vs. Val Demings show Rubio with a lead, but in a statistical dead heat due to margin of error. The Fabrizio / Anzalon poll shows Rubio leading Demings, with 49 percent of voter support to Demings’ 47 percent, while the Susquehanna Poll shows Rubio leading with 47 percent of the vote, to Demings’ 44 percent. In both cases, the margin is narrow enough to keep Sen. Rubio anxious until November, especially with independent voters leaning Democrat in the Susquehanna Poll.
Both polls surveyed 500 voters, which means that the margin of error is 4.4 percent. Two silver linings for Rubio in the Fabrizio / Anazlon poll was his larger share of support from independent voters (48 percent vs Demings’ 45 percent) and Rubio’s support “persuadable” voters, described below:
“Persuadable voters are the 19 percent of the 50+ segment of the electorate who are not definitely voting for one of Rubio or Demings. Nine percent are Probably/Leaning toward voting for Rubio, seven percent are Probably/Leaning toward voting for Demings, while the rest are Undecided. They are more likely to be Independents and moderates than voters 50+ overall. They are pessimistic about the direction of the country, and more focused on economic issues for their vote. Nearly all Senate “Persuadables” are more positively inclined toward a candidate who prioritizes issues that protect seniors.” – Fabrizio / Anzalon Poll
Other notable results from the Fabrizio / Anzalon poll included the following stats:
The demographic group where Demings had the largest lead was among black voters over the age of 50, where she gets 79 percent of the vote to Rubio’s 17 percent.
Demings enjoyed her second-highest lead was among college graduates, but that lead was much smaller by comparison, with Demings getting 55 percent to Rubio’s 42 percent.
The demographic group where Rubio had the largest lead was among white voters over the age of 50, where he got 56 percent compared to Demings’ 41 percent.
Rubio enjoyed his second-highest lead was among voters without a college degree, with Rubio getting 54 percent to Demings 42 percent.
Women over 50 support Demings by only two percent more than Rubio, 49 to 47 percent.
Hispanic voters over 50 support Rubio over Demings by only a two percent margin, 50 to 48 percent.
Notable results from the Susquehanna Poll include the following stats:
Economic issues led all issue categories for the most influential issues influencing voters, with 54 percent naming it among their top two issues, followed by social issues, (defined as including gun control and abortion,) with 44 percent choosing it among their top issues.
More voters chose the environment as one the top two issues influencing their vote than crime, health care or taxes
13 percent of voters surveyed chose health care among the top two issues influencing their vote.
16 percent of voters surveyed chose crime among the top two issues influencing their vote.
17 percent of voters surveyed chose taxes among the top issues influencing their vote.
Florida’s 10th Congressional District race for the 2022 Midterm Election could be considered the ultimate microcosm of the nation’s current political climate, with many independent voters seeking calmer tones and compromise in both chambers. District 10 covers much of Orlando proper. The two major party’s nominees couldn’t be further apart on the issues, with Democratic Party nominee Maxwell Frost, a 25-yr old left-wing activist who would be the first Generation Z member elected to the House, and Republican nominee Calvin Wimbish, a green beret known for his staunch loyalty to former President Trump. For voters seeking an alternative, there is an independent candidate – Jason Holic, who will appear on the ballot as NPA, (No Party Affiliation.)
Holic is a businessman and active member of the central Florida community. Holic’s professional background includes work as the VP of Business Applications and Insights at Experience Kissimmee, a a 501(c)6 org devoted to driving more tourism to the central Florida region. Early in Holic’s career, he led digital marketing efforts for suicide prevention, mental illness stigma reduction, and healthy nutrition campaigns. Holic was an Eagle Scout and is currently a Cub Scouts den leader. He is also an ordained deacon, an inventor (patent application 63/157,271) and a mentor to UCF students. You can learn more about Holic’s campaign at JasonHolic.com, and in our Q&A session, below:
Q:When you first contemplated a run for office as an independent, did you start from a mindset of “If there was ever an time that an independent could win, this is the year”, or was it more along the lines of: “Even though I’m not likely to win, I have to give voters the option to cast a “protest” vote against the two major parties” ?
A: “When I filed to run for District 10, my mindset was a mix of “I can’t be the only person who thinks there’s a better way to run and to serve” and “At least if I run in this district, which tends to be pretty solidly Democratic, I’ll be less likely to be accused of siphoning off votes from either party.” Now that we’re closer to the General Election, I believe a path to victory is evident and that it would be foolish to categorize a non-partisan as merely a protest vote. Looking at the voter registration data for Orange County, it’s clear I’m not the only person outside the two-party system. No Party Affiliation (NPA) voters are the second largest group of registered voters in the county – right between the two major parties. And when you look at the voter turnout for the turnout for the Primary Election, less than a third of the registered voters for each party cast a ballot. Further to that point, the party winners for District 10 didn’t secure a majority of the vote. That means the vast majority of registered voters, party affiliated or not, haven’t necessarily found their candidate. I hope that my candidacy provides an attractive alternative.”
Q: Your background includes a lot of experience in technology and digital media. When you read about potential bills and see U.S. Congressional hearings where tech CEO’s are grilled on policies involving social media, digital tech and internet regulation, etc, do you sense a major gap between what legislators believe and assert vs. the realities of how the digital tech industry operates?
A: What’s unfortunate about televised hearings is that they are often leveraged as platforms for soundbites. Watching them can make it difficult to truly understand what an elected official stands for. When it comes to tech-related hearings, though, you can at times sense that elected officials aren’t fully versed in the nuances of technology, how platforms are interrelated, and the general business models each tech giant pursues. That’s not to absolve the tech companies from any potential wrongdoing, but if a legislator does not comprehend the way in which the companies operate, those elected officials will have a difficult time uncovering the truth and determining if, for instance, there are antitrust violations or other red flags.
One of the exciting things about tech and the internet is that because the underlying infrastructure is so free and open to the public, there has historically been incredible innovation and access. While this has led to some incredible new services and products in a short amount of time, the downside to rapid innovation is that violations to consumer privacy, antitrust, and other laws may go unnoticed and undetected. Ensuring the protection of citizens is of utmost importance, and it can be done without stifling the growth and development of the tech space.
Q:Social issues have emerged as top talking points among office-holders and candidates. Both parties have found their own angle to seize the opportunity to rally their base off emotionally-charged issues. Do social issues rank among the top priorities of your campaign platform, or do you think some of those current office holders and candidates are focusing more on social issues now because they’re easier to excite their base than economic issues like tax reform, social security, future liability, etc?
A: Social issues are certainly important, but they’ve also become divisive because of how political parties have often taken deliberately opposing positions. For some, social issues have been reduced to marketing wedges. What I see as the catalyst for change is probably a bit more boring than the road more travelled. I tend to seek out the root cause when confronted with difficult situations or divisive topics. And more often than not, in the political sphere, that points me to two issues that, if not resolved, pose a serious threat to our ability to govern, unify, and lead: 1) campaign finance, and 2) extreme partisanship. Knowing the root cause of any issue provides a path for hope to become action.
Q:Which issues would you say are the ones that concern you the most for America’s future if they’re not addressed more seriously?
A: Nearly all of our political disagreements can boil down to one of two root issues: campaign finance, and extreme partisanship. Sometimes interrelated, these issues require distinct solutions to clear the logjam and allow our nation to move together as a united front – not without conflict, but with an approach to peacefully and respectfully resolve conflict in a collaborative manner. First, there’s far too much money in politics. Campaigning has become a battle for fundraising. A democratic nation should run on the principle of one vote per person, but money and the influence it brings over elected officials can turn the principle into one vote per dollar. Personhood for the purpose of governing our nation ought to be limited to humans; capital has its place in society, and it ought not to influence the halls of the legislature. Ideally, personhood levels the playing field for all Americans; capital is inherently unevenly distributed and therefore creates an uneven and undemocratic playing field in the political sphere. It can exacerbate extreme partisanship. Having worked in marketing, I quickly recognized how political candidates have leveraged marketing principles in their campaign tactics, and when the candidates win, continue to leverage them in their governing. Marketing works well in the business world, where splitting consumers into segments and carving out a loyal following leads to positive returns. Just look at Coke and Pepsi or any sports rivalry. Both sides benefit financially from the division of the population. But the problem with transferring that approach to politics is that it intimately impacts real lives. Decisions are being made of much higher consequence than which soda goes into your glass. Yet politicians so often grasp onto one side or the other of any number of divisive issues. That approach further divides the nation and makes it increasingly more difficult for mutually beneficial problem solving. It’s time we change that, and it’s time we accept the nuance to even the most currently divisive issues. It doesn’t have to be Pro-Life vs. Pro-Choice, or Gun Rights vs. Gun Reform, or any other camps. We can find things we agree on and work from there, rather than focus on the things that divide us. We can agree that moms shouldn’t lose their lives in childbirth, or that kids shouldn’t be targets at schools. Those are the things we can agree on and solve.
Q:Do you think there should be an ad spending limit, and if so, how do you think Congress could arrive at and defend the limit total as anything other than a subjective figure?
A: I’m not suggesting that there should be an arbitrary or subjective limit to advertising for candidates by their campaign committees. However, I am suggesting that candidates exercise good judgment. In my case, that leads me to believe I should minimize the influence of money in my campaign, just as I advocate to minimize the influence of money in politics in general. I can’t in good conscience campaign on the ideals of campaign finance reform while at the same time falling into the same pattern of inflated advertising spending apparent in so many other campaigns. For my own voting decisions this fall, I intend to look past advertising and seek as much objective coverage about the candidates as possible to help guide my thinking. I trust all other voters to find the best path for their own decision making as well, although it is my hope that those decisions are based on more than paid advertising messages.
Small donations from individual citizens are the foundation of my limit campaign fundraising. I believe this is the most representative, and therefore most democratic method for raising campaign funds. My campaign recommends contributions not exceed $100 as a way of leveling the playing field. In our society, each citizen is granted a single vote; likewise, my campaign is funded by individuals donating a limited amount of funds. Whether the current federal limit on individual contributions should be revised is up for debate, but I find it more palatable to institute stricter limits on corporate-backed contributions, PACs, and other mechanisms that obfuscate fundraising sources.
Q:Your opponents in the two major parties in this campaign could be described as polar opposites in almost every category, from age to foreign policy. Do you think the fact that neither major party elected a moderate in their respective primary is a result of more extremists in those parties gaining more traction than centrists during the past several years? If so, is that part of what inspired you to run in the first place?
A: Extreme partisanship is probably the single biggest reason for my running. Polar opposite candidates rarely truly represent the majority of Americans. It’s time for a more moderate approach so we can work through the nuances and start solving problems together. It’s time to recognize that there’s a ton of gray area in decision making – the world isn’t just black and white. It’s time to recognize there’s a lot more color in the world than just red and blue.
Q:Last but not least, feel free to share any facts about your personal background and as for the final question: Are there any areas where you believe you can relate to average American voters better than your opponents?
A: I never want to claim that I’m better at anything than the other candidates – ultimately that’s up to voters to determine. But here are a few facts about my background that may relate to some voters, but if not, will at least provide some insight into who I am. I grew up in what felt like a typical upbringing at the time – and maybe it was for Sarasota County – but what I now know is that my upbringing isn’t something that everyone is blessed with: two married parents, a pool in the backyard, and plenty of food on the table. My two older brothers and I were raised attending church fairly regularly, and I was baptized in the Gulf of Mexico.
I was never obligated to work in high school because my parents wanted me to focus on school, but I took a job for a short time anyway at the local bowling alley, scraping out ashtrays, frying chicken tenders, sanitizing shoes, cleaning the lounge bathroom, and heaving dripping garbage bags into the dumpster. I did well in school, earned the rank of Eagle Scout, played bagpipes, and as a National Merit Scholar, I probably could have gone to any number of universities. But a free ride to a state school through Bright Futures was hard to pass up, so I attended UCF. There, I joined the Orientation Team (O-Team), served as president for Beta Theta Pi, met my future wife, worked as a summer advisor, and graduated on time cum laude and with university honors. Then the Great Recession hit, and the job prospects for an Advertising/Public Relations major were slim. I went to grad school thanks to an assistantship at the University of South Carolina and finished remotely while working an internship in San Diego, which fortunately turned into a full-time job upon graduation. Somewhere in that timeline, my dad was let go from his 20+ years of work in the financial planning industry, which taught me that company loyalty is rarely bidirectional. So he turned to public service and was mayor of Venice for three terms. My mom also finished her associate’s degree after a 20+ hiatus to raise a family. I’m immensely proud of their dedication and commitment to not only their goals, but to whatever higher calling comes their way. I got married and we spent another year in San Diego, with no job prospects for teachers (the day my wife moved in, the local school district cut hundreds of positions). Somehow we made ends meet in our shoebox apartment.
But we decided to move back to Orlando so we would be halfway between our families. I picked up some contract marketing work and my wife earned Teacher of the Year at Colonial High School before serving in children’s ministry at a couple of churches and later becoming a group fitness instructor. I eventually landed a position at Universal Orlando Resort in the marketing department for a few years before transitioning to a Vice President role at Experience Kissimmee, a 501(c)6 where our mission is to create economic opportunity for the community by driving visitation to the destination. There I developed a tool to help similar organizations measure and understand their impact on a community level (Impactulator). I give blood regularly (everyone who is eligible should do it – it’s fast, easy, and one of the few ways we’re empowered to literally save lives no matter our occupation), try to volunteer on my birthday, brew beer, run for exercise, and try to be a good husband and dad. I work a fulltime job, and just like pretty much everyone else, I want to leave this world better than when I came into it; I’ve had more than my fair share of lucky breaks in life, and I want to use them to serve others. Fun note: my blood type is B+, which is how I try to live my life – be positive.”
“Herschel Walker’s team brought in Chip Lake, and Herschel’s message has been very sharp,” said Ben Burnett of The Ben Burnett Show.” Burnett, who is connected to Georgia’s top political players, believes that Lake can keep Walker focused on the most effective messaging. “Chip is best known nationally for putting Tom Price and Doug Collins in Congress. You have to stay poised when you’re getting hit and you need to learn how to respond. I trust Chip Lake with the message. I’m not sure that I can ever trust the messenger.”
Warnock hasn’t made any major campaign blunders to date, and Joe Biden’s numbers have slowly improved, so Walker’s lead in two recent polls seems like an increase of support from his own party, as well as independent voters, but that apparent shift may be a mirage.
DON’T CALL IT A COMEBACK?
When you look into the poll data for Trafalgar’s August poll released on August 27th and compare it to Trafalgar’s next most recent poll, you have to go back to March 9th. That March 9th Trafalgar poll had Walker up 48 to 46, which means Warnock actually gained support, albeit only one point, from March to August, while Walker stayed at 48. As for Emerson, the next most recent poll for Emerson was released April 3rd, and in that poll, Walker enjoyed a 49 to 45 lead over Warnock, which means that Walker dropped two points between March and August, while Warnock improved just under one point. Ultimately, the same two polls that showed Walker leading Warnock in late August are the same two polls that showed Walker leading Warnock before Walker’s summer drought, when he trailed in seven of eight polls, and tied Warnock 46-46 in an early June poll conducted by Eastern Carolina University. The margin of error in these polls is between 2.9 percent to 3.9 percent, so in each case, these are all considered virtual ties.