Florida Democrats hope the third time is the charm for former governor and perennial candidate Charlie Crist. Last night, Crist won a decisive victory against Sec. of Agriculture Nikki Fried, the only state cabinet elected Democrat. Even for those who don’t follow Florida politics closely, Crist’s name recognition strength vs. Fried’s made his win unsurprising underwhelming, but there was an important message that may have been overlooked as Crist delivered his victory speech: Democrats weren’t willing to take the risk of nominating another candidate favored by the extreme left.
CRIST WAS THE CLOSEST THING TO A ‘SAFE PICK’ FOR DEMOCRATS
While Crist can claim one statewide victory to Florida’s Governor’s Mansion in 2006, Crist went on to lose a campaign for senate as an independent, and his second bid for governor in 2014, after he switched to the Democratic Party and lost to incumbent Republican Rick Scott.
Since Andrew Gillum’s narrow loss to DeSantis in 2016, more details have emerged of Gillum’s reckless and possibly illegal activities, ranging from bribes to doing drugs with prostitutes. Gillum was the favorite of socialist Bernie Sanders and generated enough support among younger voters to defeat then candidate Gwen Graham. In hindsight, Ghraham had many similarities to Crist, and was well known due to her family connections. Graham’s father, Bob Graham, served as Florida Governor from 1979 to 1987, then went on to serve as U.S. Senator for Florida for nearly two decades, serving from 1987 to 2005. During the past four years, many Democrats have wondered what would have happened if they had nominated Gwen Graham back in 2018.
While nobody can travel back in time, there’ no denying the fact that compared to Gillum, Gwen Graham’s voting record, which included several noteworthy right-leaning votese, could have swayed enough moderate Republicans and Independents to defeat DeSantis.
VOTER ENTHUSIASM FOR DESANTIS IN 2022 MUCH HIGHER THAN SCOTT IN 2014
Democrats may cling to the hope that Crist will be the gubernatorial version of Biden vs. Trump, but Biden didn’t win Florida for the same reason Crist will need a miracle: Voter enthusiasm. Republicans packed the polls for Trump to deliver the Sunshine State by a wider margin than expected in 2020. DeSantis’ support is just as apparent and evident throughout the state. As DeSantis has tackled social issues such as Critical Race Theory , launched civic education initiatives and such as audited special districts for corporate giants such as Disney, many conservatives joined his proactive approach to reform and are much more publicly visible and vocal than they were when Rick Scott was making changes without as much media exposure. Since Crist couldn’t win vs. Rick Scott’s base, the odds are even uglier against DeSantis.
CRIST HAS NO DEFINED ‘BASE’ OF SUPPORT
Ironically, the largest base of support that Crist has ever enjoyed came from Republicans in 2006, when he ran as Jeb Bush’s chosen conservative successor to the office and enjoyed broad support from the majority of registered Republicans. The more Crist moved to the center, the less support he found.
Just like Val Demings vs. Marco Rubio, Crist can’t rely on Florida’s most Democratic counties to carry him to victory. will have to chip away at DeSantis’ slight majority approval from independents, (Recent polls show DeSantis with between 52 percent to 54 percent approval among Independents). Republicans have a statistical advantage with more overall registered voters in the state. Both party’s “Get Out the Vote” drives will be extremely critical.
For more stories on Florida politics, visit our Florida political news section.
The Story That Charlie Crist Hopes You’ve Forgotten
Watch any press conference or stump speech by Charlie Crist during this 2022 election season, and one overriding theme will stand out among all of his talking points: Crist believes he deserves your vote because Ron DeSantis is too power hungry and too ambitious for higher office to care about every day average Floridians. The irony is that Crist is the ultimate example of a calculated career politician who has shown an endless thirst to ascend to higher office, even when he called governor’s mansion his home.
In each of Charlie Crist’s campaigns for statewide office, he’s portrayed himself as a uniter. The one area where Crist gets Democrats and Republicans to agree is about the fact that Crist’s ambition for higher office has always been obvious. Florida has experienced an influx of new residents unrivaled by almost every other state with the exception of Texas, and as a result, many new residents and young voters aren’t familiar with Charlie Crist’s political career. When Crist served as Jeb Bush’s education commissioner, he wasn’t satisfied and ran for Florida Attorney General in the late 90’s, so nobody was surprised when Crist ran for governor in 2006, after Bush termed-out. Crist won the 2006 Florida Gubernatorial race but before his first term was complete, he was already campaigning for a seat in the U.S. Senate. This is where Charlie Crist desperately hopes you stop reading.
In Crist’s third year in his lone term as Florida governor, a major opportunity arose when former Senator Mel Martinez announced he would be retiring from office before finishing his term. As governor, Crist’s duties included appointing interim Senators. When the time came to make the appointment, Crist chose someone who not only had no experience in elected office, but was Crist’s own chief of staff, George LeMieux, a man whom Crist had previously dismissed as unqualified for such a high office.
Why did Crist have the sudden change of heart after an impromptu meeting in the middle of the night at a WHATABURGER fast food restaurant in Tallahassee?
“Insiders have long wondered why Crist bypassed big names like Jacksonville Mayor John Delaney, U.S. Rep Bill Young and his own lieutenant governor, Jeff Kottkamp. Crist instead chose LeMieux, his onetime chief of staff, who had never held elected office.” – Tampa Bay Times article.
A potential explanation became obvious after Crist declared his candidacy in 2009 for the very same senate seat where he appointed LeMieux. Unlike other potential appointees, LeMieux had experience as Crist’s most loyal staffer, and every political analysts called the move for what it was: A quid pro quo power play Crist utilized to effectively eliminate any major opposition in a Republican Primary Race for Martinez’s senate seat.
Consider the following:
• Crist knew LeMieux eagerly wanted to serve in the Senate but also knew LeMieux likely couldn’t win an election outright due to his lack of experience in office. Such inexperience would be remedied by serving as an interim Senator.
• LeMieux knew that he could run against Bill Nelson for the other senate seat that would be up for grabs in the 2012 election, and that campaign could begin almost immediately after serving as interim senator. (LeMieux did run for Nelson’s seat in 2012, only to lose to Connie Mack in the Republican Primary.)
• LeMieux knew that if he bowed out of 2010’s race, publicly thanked Crist for the opportunity to serve, and endorsed Crist vs any hypothetical Republican primary opposition, it would help Crist’s odds to win a Senate seat in 2010, especially if Crist’s approval numbers continued their downward trajectory. Logically, Crist would likely repay the favor by endorsing LeMieux in a primary vs. Republican primary candidates for the other Senate seat in 2012.
Clearly, LeMieux was the path of least resistance for Crist to the Senate in 2010, and both of them knew it. Crist could save a threatened political career and LeMieux could start his own.
Another important factor to keep in mind is that Florida was starting to see economic indicators of a housing market slide in 2007, and governors typically take the brunt of the blame for a state specific budget and economic issues, since Senators don’t touch state budgets and only legislate federal policies and federal spending. Charlie Crist’s emergency parachute was the U.S. Senate, but that backup plan was were obliterated thanks to a rising young star in the GOP by the name of Marco Rubio, who won over Republican primary voters to such a degree that Crist left the Republican Party in April of 2010, before the Republican Primary Election even occurred, to run as an independent. Crist went on to lose to Rubio by nearly 20 points in the 2010 Midterm election.
On November 1, 2013, Crist filed to run for governor as a Democrat. He won the Democratic nomination but was defeated in the general election by Republican incumbent Rick Scott. Crist holds the rare distinction of losing a statewide general election in Florida as a Republican, a Democrat and an Independent. Crist’s highlight of the past decade came in 2016, when he defeated Republican Congressman David Jolly in the former Florida’s district-wide race in his hometown county for Congress in 2016, his lone victory in the past 16 years.
Barring major changes in voter sentiment over the next few weeks, Crist is headed toward a third-statewide election loss. Should Crist lost that election, it would be hard to imagine another statewide campaign in his future, unless he wants to become the Buffalo Bills of Florida politicians.
For more stories on Florida politics, visit our Florida political news section.
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