Dr. Mike Looney has served as the Superintendent for the Fulton County School District (Atlanta) in Georgia since June 2019. He discusses a challenging upbringing. In the middle of his first year on the job he dealt with Covid-19. He talks about hardening infrastructure to keep kids safe, and what makes his heart beat for kids.
Two Simple Reasons to Ignore 2024 Straw Polls from CPAC and Similar Events
For the average observer of American politics, it’s easy to interpret recent straw polls conducted by CPAC as an indication of overwhelming party-wide support for Donald Trump to be the Republican Nominee for President in 2024. There are two key reasons why it’s foolish to take any straw poll seriously, but especially the most recent polls pitting Trump vs a handful of other candidates.
REASON 1: Trump’s total number of Republican opponents, if any, won’t be anything close to the tally of the 2016 field.
Trump faced 16 Republican opponents in 2016, including multiple long-established major names in the party who received millions from major donors. The large field fractured the opposition, allowing Trump to win primaries with mere pluralities through the vast majority of the primary campaign season. In 2024, the largest number of Republican rivals Trump will face should be less than three, and even more likely, only one candidate, due to fear of voter backlash. Should he face only one opponent, that brings someone such as DeSantis from a 25 to 30 point deficit to a tie, virtual tie, or lead.
REASON 2: CPAC is composed of the most staunch political activists on the right wing of the party.
Trends, opinions and preferences of the majority of members of CPAC and other political organizations comprised of party activists inherently clash with the sentiment of average American voters. For example, in 2011, Herman Cain won a string of straw polls, including “Presidency 5” , a conference held in Orlando that was hosted by the American Conservative Union, the same organization which hosts C-PAC.
In that straw poll, Texas Governor Rick Perry finished in second place, and ultimate 2012 nominee Mitt Romney finished in third place, fairing only 3.1% higher than Senator Rick Santorum. For those of you who don’t recall, Cain didn’t even make it to 2012 as a candidate, and Perry officially left the race less than two weeks after the start of 2012.
The reason for Cain and Perry’s success in Presidency 5? Attendees wanted to show their staunch opposition to the establishment favor, Mitt Romney. Trump can no longer expect an anti-establishment favorite pick to work in his favorite, because whether Trump likes it or not, he IS the party establishment at this point.
Rubio and Florida Republicans Have Statistical Edge for 2022 Midterm
In Congresswoman Val Demings’ race vs. Florida’s senior Senator Marco Rubio, her only chance to upset Rubio is to improve Democrat performance in the Miami region, where her party surrendered two house seats in 2020 to new Republicans, Carlos Gimenez and Maria Elvira Salazar.
South Florida has always been the Democratic Party’s strongest section of the Sunshine State for voter support, but the dark shade of blue has faded since the Obama era.
Demings knows she will dominate Orlando within its city limits, along sections of Tampa with college towns. Take a close look at the Florida counties with the most Democrats. Their lead in Broward County, Miami-Dade County and Palm Beach County is impressive, but once you analyze other large counties, you see where their lead not only dwindles, but becomes a deficit. Demings’ can’t win without reversing the recent Hispanic shift to Republican support in South Florida and win the vast majority of independent voters where Republicans have a slim lead in registered voters.
The issue of abortion will energize more voters who are already staunchly in Demings face, but no data suggests that abortion will overtake economic concerns as the leading issue or improve her performance with white middle-aged men or college educated men, the demographic where she must make inroads to erode Rubio’s most reliable base.
While abortion will be among the top issues motivating voters, Florida doesn’t have any constitutional amendment with confusing language about abortion restrictions on its ballot like the one in Kansas.
The economy can’t recover quickly enough to drop from its rein as the most pressing issue. Car loan payment delinquencies and credit card debt averages are at the highest level in a decade, and inflation is still hitting hard.
Ironically both Rubio and Demings grew up with mothers who were maids, so both can relate to hospitality industry workers feeling the economic pinch. Typically, Demings, or any Democrat, would pander to blue collar industrial workers with her family back story, but with Democrats controlling the White House and the Senate she seeks to join, Demings can’t afford to be considered part of the problem when it comes to the economic downturn suffered during Biden’s first term, particularly this year’s severe dropoff.
While it’s fair to categorize 2022 as an outlier year due to the recent Roe vs. Wade ruling, there’s one undeniable fact about elections without Presidential candidates on the ballot: The most consistent voting demographic age group is voters over 50. They’re not going to have much concern about abortion while they are having a hard time paying just to put food in their stomach, especially senior citizens living on fixed incomes in a state where housing costs are among the highest in the nation.
For more stories on Florida politics, visit our Florida political news section.
UPDATE: Tennessee Picks Democratic Gubernatorial Nominee
UPDATE: The Nashville Tennessean names Jason Martin winner of the hotly-contested Tennessee Democratic gubernatorial nomination in narrow win over JB Smiley Jr. The primary was incredibly tight, with fewer than 1500 votes separating the two. Now, Martin faces an uphill battle against incumbent Republican Gov. Bill Lee.
ORIGINAL POST ON ELECTION DAY: Tennessee’s voters head to the polls for the statewide primary election today. On the top of the ticket, there won’t be any challengers for Governor Bill Lee, an incumbent Republican, but three Democrats are vying to challenge Lee for the General Election in November: Memphis community activist Carnita Atwater, Nashville physician Jason Martin and Memphis City Council member JB Smiley, Jr.
According to the latest polls,
According to the Nashville Tennessean, of nine U.S. Congressional Districts, much of the focus is on the newly drawn 5th Congressional District, where state legislators redrew the 5th into a Republican-friendly district, splitting Nashville into the 5th, 6th and 7th congressional districts.
The new congressional districts in and around Nashville include:
- 5th District: southwestern Davidson County and Columbia
- 6th District: East Nashville and Cookeville
- 7th District: includes North Nashville, downtown and Clarksville.
Alabama GOP Considering Closed Primary Elections
Alabama may join 14 other states with closed primary elections, preventing crossover influence from voters registered with a different party.
According to an article on AL.com earlier this week, Republicans are expected to vote on a resolution this month, and Alabama GOP Chairman John Wahl confirmed on Monday that one of the resolutions under consideration at the party’s summer meeting in Montgomery is to close primaries.
“The ALGOP Resolution Committee is in the process of finalizing what will be presented to the State Executive Committee on August 13,” Wahl said. “One of those resolutions is concerning closed primaries.”
Earlier this summer, Wahl signaled his support of closed primaries, but his support alone won’t change the current structure. Shifting to a closed primary would require a vote of the Alabama Legislature. The Legislature consists of a Republican supermajority, a make-up that is unlikely to change after the November general election.
Other states that run closed primaries include Alabama’s neighbor to the south, Florida, along with Delaware, Kentucky, Maryland, Nevada, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, and Pennsylvania.
Open primaries have been praised and criticized from leadership in both major parties, leaving each state’s future status uncertain. Republicans capitalized on open primary elections during the 2008 Democratic Primary Election, when Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama were in a fierce battle for the party’s nomination. Fueled by the late talk show host Rush Limbaugh, Republicans voted for the candidate coming off of a loss in the most recent primary, as part of an organized effort that Limbaugh labeled “Operation chaos.”
Alabama already held its primary for this year’s midterm election, back on May 24th. It also held a runoff on June 21st, which saw a dismal turnout of 13 percent, ranked as among the worst election turnouts in Alabama in the past 35 years.
Florida Counties with the Most Democratic Party Voters
| County | Democrat | Republican | Dem Lead | No Party | Categorized “Other” | Combined NPA and “Other” |
| Broward | 594,404 | 260,210 | 334,194 | 358,409 | 19,445 | 377,854 |
| Miami Dade | 576,009 | 425,914 | 150,095 | 478,200 | 22,816 | 501,016 |
| Palm Beach | 398,878 | 285,669 | 113,209 | N/A | 308,533 | 308,533 |
| Hillsborough | 340,047 | 283,631 | 56,416 | N/A | 282,755 | 282,755 |
| Orange | 358,394 | 214,951 | 143,443 | 266,762 | 14,705 | 281,467 |
COUNTIES HOME TO COLLEGE TOWNS
| County | Democratic Voters | Republican Voters | Democrat Lead | NPA | OTHER | Combined NPA and Other |
| Leon | 105,469 | 53,930 | 51,539 | 0 | 42,852 | 42,852 |
| Alachua | 85,865 | 48,243 | 37,622 | 0 | 45,044 | 45,044 |
For more stories on Florida politics, visit our Florida political news section.
Opinion: Tim Scott’s Book ‘Error’ Seems Like a Trial Balloon for 2024
Yesterday, a bombshell excerpt was leaked from Senator Tim Scott’s soon-to-be-released memoir.
According to a new report out today from the Charleston Post-Courier, Scott’s book, “America: A Redemption Story“, features an excerpt in small font on the copyright page alongside information about how the work should be cataloged in the Library of Congress, reads: “Senator Scott is a rising star who sees and understands the importance of bipartisanship to move America forward. This book is a political memoir that includes his core messages as he prepares to make a presidential bid in 2022.”
Thomas Nelson, an imprint of HarperCollins Christian Publishing, said it was working to correct the error after a line was added in fine print to the bottom of the copyright page in America, a Redemption Story, as reported by the Post and Courier.
Obviously, the publisher’s retraction has been viewed with some skepticism, even with Sen. Scott himself claiming that the quote is wrong, but the timing couldn’t be more suspect. In light of the gauntlet of damaging press that has been plaguing Donald Trump, especially Cassidy Huthcinson’s testimony and the revelation of secret service permanently deleting texts from January 6, there has been an upswell in demand for alternatives, based on donor quotes and meetings with other high profile Republicans, including Tim Scott.
WHY WOULD TIM SCOTT USE THIS METHOD AS A TRIAL BALLOON?
On the surface, the publisher’s mistake is easily interpreted incompetent editing, but when you consider the high risks posed to any high-profile Republican who even hints at a possible consideration of running in 2024, it’s easy to see why Tim Scott’s campaign would use an apparent public relations fumble to test the waters. This could have very well been a strategy to put the idea of his candidacy out there without declaration that would upset the most avid supporters of Trump who Scott needs if he ever has a chance at elevating from the Senate to the White House.
Only time will tell if the alleged error was indeed an honest mistake.
Georgia Sec. of State Rebuked by Trump Has Largest Lead of Statewide Candidates
In the political arena, a lot can change in 18 months. Georgia’s Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger was a name not recognized by many people outside of Georgia politicos, but that all changed in January 2021, when Trump pressured him to change the state’s Presidential vote totals. Unmoved by the power of the Oval Office, Raffensperger stood his ground, openly defied Trump’s claims and asserted that there was no evidence to support claims of voter fraud. Audio of the call was published worldwide the following day, and from that point on, Raffensperger was lumped into the same group of “disloyal” Republicans who frequently receive public rebuke from the former President.
Considering the damage typically inflicted on any Republican who contradicts Trump, it was easy to expect a primary election loss for Raffensperger, yet he defied the odds. His principled stance gained popularity and support from Georgia voters, including Democrats, who are allowed to vote in Georgia’s open primaries. Ultimately, he defeated his primary opponent, Rep. Jody Hice, 52.3% to 33.4%, and based on the Atlanta Journal Constitution’s poll results published July 28th, 2022, he is on pace to defeat his Democratic opponent in the General Election by a double-digit margin, as the AJC poll shows him up 46% to 32% over Democrat Bee Nguyen. (Libertarian Ted Metz had 7%, a notable percentage for a third party candidate).
DEFYING THE ODDS AGAINST TRUMP SUPPORTERS
How has Raffensperger managed to grow his popularity in such a polarized political era? Ben Burnett, who is a Georgia political talk show host and a former Alpharetta City Councilman, offered his analysis of Raffensperger’s unexpected bipartisan support post 2021.
“The Secretary of State’s role in Georgia state politics isn’t viewed with as much partisanship as it actually has,” Burnett said. ”He pulls on many of the heart strings of liberals for standing up to Donald Trump. He doesn’t get into abortion or guns. So liberals don’t have a lot to hate about him.”
Combined with Senator Warnock’s growing lead over Herschel Walker, the lead enjoyed by Raffensperger shows that Trump can’t count on Georgia to back him in 2024.