Alabama may join 14 other states with closed primary elections, preventing crossover influence from voters registered with a different party.
According to an article on AL.com earlier this week, Republicans are expected to vote on a resolution this month, and Alabama GOP Chairman John Wahl confirmed on Monday that one of the resolutions under consideration at the party’s summer meeting in Montgomery is to close primaries.
Alabama GOP Chairman John Wahl
“The ALGOP Resolution Committee is in the process of finalizing what will be presented to the State Executive Committee on August 13,” Wahl said. “One of those resolutions is concerning closed primaries.”
Earlier this summer, Wahl signaled his support of closed primaries, but his support alone won’t change the current structure. Shifting to a closed primary would require a vote of the Alabama Legislature. The Legislature consists of a Republican supermajority, a make-up that is unlikely to change after the November general election.
Other states that run closed primaries include Alabama’s neighbor to the south, Florida, along with Delaware, Kentucky, Maryland, Nevada, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, and Pennsylvania.
Open primaries have been praised and criticized from leadership in both major parties, leaving each state’s future status uncertain. Republicans capitalized on open primary elections during the 2008 Democratic Primary Election, when Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama were in a fierce battle for the party’s nomination. Fueled by the late talk show host Rush Limbaugh, Republicans voted for the candidate coming off of a loss in the most recent primary, as part of an organized effort that Limbaugh labeled “Operation chaos.”
Alabama already held its primary for this year’s midterm election, back on May 24th. It also held a runoff on June 21st, which saw a dismal turnout of 13 percent, ranked as among the worst election turnouts in Alabama in the past 35 years.
Yesterday, a bombshell excerpt was leaked from Senator Tim Scott’s soon-to-be-released memoir.
According to a new report out today from the Charleston Post-Courier, Scott’s book, “America: A Redemption Story“, features an excerpt in small font on the copyright page alongside information about how the work should be cataloged in the Library of Congress, reads: “Senator Scott is a rising star who sees and understands the importance of bipartisanship to move America forward. This book is a political memoir that includes his core messages as he prepares to make a presidential bid in 2022.”
Thomas Nelson, an imprint of HarperCollins Christian Publishing, said it was working to correct the error after a line was added in fine print to the bottom of the copyright page in America, a Redemption Story, as reported by the Post and Courier.
Obviously, the publisher’s retraction has been viewed with some skepticism, even with Sen. Scott himself claiming that the quote is wrong, but the timing couldn’t be more suspect. In light of the gauntlet of damaging press that has been plaguing Donald Trump, especially Cassidy Huthcinson’s testimony and the revelation of secret service permanently deleting texts from January 6, there has been an upswell in demand for alternatives, based on donor quotes and meetings with other high profile Republicans, including Tim Scott.
WHY WOULD TIM SCOTT USE THIS METHOD AS A TRIAL BALLOON?
On the surface, the publisher’s mistake is easily interpreted incompetent editing, but when you consider the high risks posed to any high-profile Republican who even hints at a possible consideration of running in 2024, it’s easy to see why Tim Scott’s campaign would use an apparent public relations fumble to test the waters. This could have very well been a strategy to put the idea of his candidacy out there without declaration that would upset the most avid supporters of Trump who Scott needs if he ever has a chance at elevating from the Senate to the White House.
Only time will tell if the alleged error was indeed an honest mistake.
In the political arena, a lot can change in 18 months. Georgia’s Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger was a name not recognized by many people outside of Georgia politicos, but that all changed in January 2021, when Trump pressured him to change the state’s Presidential vote totals. Unmoved by the power of the Oval Office, Raffensperger stood his ground, openly defied Trump’s claims and asserted that there was no evidence to support claims of voter fraud. Audio of the call was published worldwide the following day, and from that point on, Raffensperger was lumped into the same group of “disloyal” Republicans who frequently receive public rebuke from the former President.
Considering the damage typically inflicted on any Republican who contradicts Trump, it was easy to expect a primary election loss for Raffensperger, yet he defied the odds. His principled stance gained popularity and support from Georgia voters, including Democrats, who are allowed to vote in Georgia’s open primaries. Ultimately, he defeated his primary opponent, Rep. Jody Hice, 52.3% to 33.4%, and based on the Atlanta Journal Constitution’s poll results published July 28th, 2022, he is on pace to defeat his Democratic opponent in the General Election by a double-digit margin, as the AJC poll shows him up 46% to 32% over Democrat Bee Nguyen. (Libertarian Ted Metz had 7%, a notable percentage for a third party candidate).
DEFYING THE ODDS AGAINST TRUMP SUPPORTERS
How has Raffensperger managed to grow his popularity in such a polarized political era? Ben Burnett, who is a Georgia political talk show host and a former Alpharetta City Councilman, offered his analysis of Raffensperger’s unexpected bipartisan support post 2021.
“The Secretary of State’s role in Georgia state politics isn’t viewed with as much partisanship as it actually has,” Burnett said. ”He pulls on many of the heart strings of liberals for standing up to Donald Trump. He doesn’t get into abortion or guns. So liberals don’t have a lot to hate about him.”
NATIONAL REVIEW’S KEY POINTS ON RECENT MISSOURI SENATE POLLS :
Trafalgar has Schmitt at 26.5 percent, congresswoman Vicky Hartzler at 24.4 percent, Greitens at 20.2 percent, congressman Billy Long at 6.7 percent, 6.6 percent with minor candidates (Mark McCloskey and Dave Schatz), and 15.6 percent undecided.
Emerson has Schmitt at 33 percent, Hartzler at 21 percent, Greitens at 16 percent, Long at 5 percent, 8 percent for minor candidates, and 17 percent undecided. Sixty-one percent have an unfavorable view of Greitens, double the unfavorables for Schmitt and nearly double those of Hartzler.
When undecideds are pushed to choose, Emerson shows the race at Schmitt 39 percent, Hartzler 25 percent, Greitens 18 percent, Long 7 percent, and 11 percent for the minor candidates. In other words, a third of independents would pick Schmitt if they had to decide today, but barely more than one in nine would choose Greitens.
Republican pollster Remington’s Missouri Scout poll has Schmitt at 32 percent, Hartzler at 25 percent, Greitens at 18 percent, Long at 8 percent, and 7 percent with the minor candidates, with 10 percent undecided.
Earlier today, SurveyUSA published poll results showing incumbent Senator Raphael Warnock up nine against Herschel Walker in the race for Georgia’s open senate seat. The race continues to trend toward Warnock after several damaging revelations about Walker. Warnock continues to benefit from an essentially unvetted opponent in Walker, a celebrity candidate who was buoyed by Trump’s endorsement. Three of most interesting findings in the poll:
• Warnock leads by 22 points among voters under age 50, and trails by a nominal 2 points among those age 50 and older.
• Walker significantly underperforms sitting Governor Brian Kemp’s numbers: of those who cast a vote for Kemp for Governor, only 78% vote for Walker for Senate. Of those who vote for Stacey Abrams in the gubernatorial contest, 93% vote for Raphael Warnock.
• Black voters choose Warnock by an 80-point margin; white voters back Walker by 28 points.
“Herschel Walker won a Heisman Trophy over 40 years ago and carried a historically underachieving football team to national prominence, and 68.2% of Republican primary voters made him the nominee for that reason, Burnett said. “Young voters don’t care about that. They know the University of Georgia as a current powerhouse football program. People under the age of 40 tend to look past Warnock’s domestic issues and left leaning voting record because they don’t realize what 9.1% inflation means, and Herschel Walker means very little to UGA’s football success today. Herschel can’t articulate anything much less a value proposition. Walker’s talents on the field don’t exceed his problems off of it. Senator Warnock isn’t a great guy. But Warnock has never pretended to be an FBI agent, he’s never allegedly held a gun to his wife’s head, and he doesn’t sit in a party that claims to have strong family values. Walker’s entire political existence sits on a mountain of hypocrisy with no results. Georgia Republican voters are 100% to blame for selecting a poor candidate. Any other senate candidate in that primary would have beaten Senator Warnock by sitting in their basement and staying off social media. I mean any of them.”
SHOW DESCRIPTION: Georgia’s most powerful lobbyist, Don Bolia stops in to discuss an industry full of misconceptions. How he recruits clients. How he delivers results. He discusses long term issues that face Georgia, and why every organization needs a government relations expert on the payroll.
Since 2000, Florida has been the most coveted swing state in the Southeast, whether the stakes are a Presidential race or pivotal midterms. While Democrats still dominate a few Florida counties, recent trends, including a Republican registration advantage, indicate that Sunshine State’s shade of red has darkened since Governor Ron DeSantis was elected in 2018. During that same timespan, Georgia has seen two Senate seats flip from red to blue, and North Carolina’s Democratic governor Roy Cooper was re-elected for a second term.
North Carolina Voter Demographic Trends:
The most recent US Census and other data shows that Charlotte and Raleigh among the fastest growing cities in the country during the past year. While it’s true that Florida also touts several cities among the top 10 for fastest growth, its new residents primarily consist of retirees relocating to Sarasota on the gulf coast, and Melbourne on the Atlantic cost. Charlotte and Raleigh attract young professionals, particularly in academic research careers that heavily rely on federal grants. Florida’s implants are typically seniors, most of whom are socially conservative and deeply committed to long-held voting habits. When you combine the influx of more senior citizen voters with South Florida Hispanics shifting their support to Republicans (including two Congressional seats that flipped red in 2020), North Carolina much more viable for Democrats in the near term.
Need more proof that Democrats are gaining ground in the Tar Heel state? Take a look at turnout in the 2020 election. Biden carried eight of North Carolina’s ten largest counties (losing only the Charlotte-area suburban counties of Union and Gaston), and overperformed Obama’s 2008 margin in the six largest: Wake, Mecklenburg, Guilford, Forsyth, Durham, and Buncombe, in which he received 62%, 67%, 61%, 56%, 80%, and 60% of the vote, respectively. Biden also became the first Democrat to carry New Hanover County, home of Wilmington, since 1976, and held Trump to a single-digit margin in the Charlotte-area suburban county of Cabarrus, the first time since 1976 that the Republican margin in this county has been less than 10%. Obviously, Biden’s approval rating has plummeted since 2020, and many independent voters may switch their support if his approval numbers remain in the 30’s and 40’s, but the overall Democratic momentum in North Carolina is a stark contrast from Florida. Democratic Governor Roy Cooper used that shift to win a second term by 4.5 points. Florida Democrats undoubtedly envy their fellow party leaders in the Tarheel State, because barring a total shock between now and 2022 Midterm Election Day, DeSantis and Senator Marco Rubio appear to be headed to re-election by comfortable margins of victory.
Conversely, Trump held or outperformed his 2016 margin in Robeson, Bladen, Martin, Granville and Gates counties, all counties that had been reliably Democratic in the 20th century and which had voted for Obama twice before flipping to Trump in 2016. Biden thereby became the first Democrat ever to win the presidency without Robeson County, the largest county in the Lumber River region of the state and the county which had given Jimmy Carter his largest raw vote margin in the state in both 1976 and 1980. Trump picked off neighboring Scotland County, one of only 15 counties he flipped nationally, becoming the first Republican to carry it since Ronald Reagan in 1984 and making Biden the first Democrat to win without Scotland since the county’s creation in 1899. Biden also became the first Democrat to win the White House without Granville and Gates counties since 1892, the first since 1884 to win without Bladen County, the first since 1856 to win without Richmond County and the first ever to win without Martin County.
Georgia Voter Demographic Trends:
Analysis of Georgia’s leftward shift is much simpler than North Carolina. Democratic gains in Georiga are directly attributable to the new generation of suburban voters throughout the Atlanta Metro region. Biden was able to build Clinton’s vote shares in the densely-populated Metro Atlanta counties of Gwinnett, Cobb, and Henry, increasing her vote shares of 50%, 48%, and 50% to 58%, 56%, and 60%, respectively–in all three cases, the best showing for a non-Georgian Democrat since John F. Kennedy in the 1960 election.
In this year’s high-profile Senate race, Republican nominee Herschel Walker saw his lead evaporate in most polls against incumbent Democrat Raphael Warnock. Walker is a statewide football legend who was endorsed by former President Trump, but several revelations about his past hurt his polling numbers. Warnock is a pastor who narrowly won in the 2021 special election runoff against Kelly Loeffler. Warnock’s campaign has been low-key as Walker’s misfortunes continue to attract media scrutiny.
If Warnock manages to defeat Walker, statewide Democrats will count on him to play a key role in the 2024 Presidential election. At the national level, Democratic leaders know that Florida will likely be even more challenging to conquer, Florida’s Electoral vote haul is cancelled-out if Democrats win Georgia and North Carolina. Keep an eye on the amount of money, personnel and other resources that Democrat leaders pour into Georgia and North Carolina over the next 30 months.
“In the 2012 presidential election, Republican nominee Mitt Romney won Georgia by 8 percentage points. In 2016, Trump won by 5. Two years later, then-Secretary of State Brian Kemp, the Republican candidate, won the governorship over Democrat Stacey Abrams by just 1.4 percentage points — amid allegations that he and the GOP had worked to suppress minority votes by purging voter rolls.
Even if Trump or a different 2024 Republican presidential nominee improves on Trump’s southwestern performance in 2020 by winning Arizona in 2024, it won’t matter if Democrats manage to win either Georgia or North Carolina. See below:
Alabama GOP Considering Closed Primary Elections
Alabama may join 14 other states with closed primary elections, preventing crossover influence from voters registered with a different party.
According to an article on AL.com earlier this week, Republicans are expected to vote on a resolution this month, and Alabama GOP Chairman John Wahl confirmed on Monday that one of the resolutions under consideration at the party’s summer meeting in Montgomery is to close primaries.
“The ALGOP Resolution Committee is in the process of finalizing what will be presented to the State Executive Committee on August 13,” Wahl said. “One of those resolutions is concerning closed primaries.”
Earlier this summer, Wahl signaled his support of closed primaries, but his support alone won’t change the current structure. Shifting to a closed primary would require a vote of the Alabama Legislature. The Legislature consists of a Republican supermajority, a make-up that is unlikely to change after the November general election.
Other states that run closed primaries include Alabama’s neighbor to the south, Florida, along with Delaware, Kentucky, Maryland, Nevada, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, and Pennsylvania.
Open primaries have been praised and criticized from leadership in both major parties, leaving each state’s future status uncertain. Republicans capitalized on open primary elections during the 2008 Democratic Primary Election, when Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama were in a fierce battle for the party’s nomination. Fueled by the late talk show host Rush Limbaugh, Republicans voted for the candidate coming off of a loss in the most recent primary, as part of an organized effort that Limbaugh labeled “Operation chaos.”
Alabama already held its primary for this year’s midterm election, back on May 24th. It also held a runoff on June 21st, which saw a dismal turnout of 13 percent, ranked as among the worst election turnouts in Alabama in the past 35 years.