Two recent polls showing a reversal of trends for Herschel Walker, the Republican nominee for Georgia’s U.S. Senate seat currently occupied by incumbent Democratic Senator Raphael Warnock. (The other seat is occupied by Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff, who isn’t up for re-election until 2026.) After Walker trailed Warnock in every RCP-Cited Poll throughout July, a recent poll by Trafalgar Group showed Walker leading Warnock 48 percent to 47 percent. Just two days ago, poll results released by Emerson College showed Walker ahead of Warnock, 47.0 to 44.3.
“Herschel Walker’s team brought in Chip Lake, and Herschel’s message has been very sharp,” said Ben Burnett of The Ben Burnett Show.” Burnett, who is connected to Georgia’s top political players, believes that Lake can keep Walker focused on the most effective messaging. “Chip is best known nationally for putting Tom Price and Doug Collins in Congress. You have to stay poised when you’re getting hit and you need to learn how to respond. I trust Chip Lake with the message. I’m not sure that I can ever trust the messenger.”
Warnock hasn’t made any major campaign blunders to date, and Joe Biden’s numbers have slowly improved, so Walker’s lead in two recent polls seems like an increase of support from his own party, as well as independent voters, but that apparent shift may be a mirage.
DON’T CALL IT A COMEBACK?
When you look into the poll data for Trafalgar’s August poll released on August 27th and compare it to Trafalgar’s next most recent poll, you have to go back to March 9th. That March 9th Trafalgar poll had Walker up 48 to 46, which means Warnock actually gained support, albeit only one point, from March to August, while Walker stayed at 48. As for Emerson, the next most recent poll for Emerson was released April 3rd, and in that poll, Walker enjoyed a 49 to 45 lead over Warnock, which means that Walker dropped two points between March and August, while Warnock improved just under one point. Ultimately, the same two polls that showed Walker leading Warnock in late August are the same two polls that showed Walker leading Warnock before Walker’s summer drought, when he trailed in seven of eight polls, and tied Warnock 46-46 in an early June poll conducted by Eastern Carolina University. The margin of error in these polls is between 2.9 percent to 3.9 percent, so in each case, these are all considered virtual ties.
Since 2004, O’Hern has worked with political campaigns in roles ranging from major projects involving nationwide digital marketing for U.S. Presidential candidates, U.S. Congressmen, state governors, and state representatives. O’Hern’s journalism background includes news reporting and editing for various organizations and news publications in Alabama and Florida since 2002. O’Hern graduated from Samford University in Birmingham, Ala with a degree in journalism and a minor in political science.