Two new polls on Marco Rubio vs. Val Demings show Rubio with a lead, but in a statistical dead heat due to margin of error. The Fabrizio / Anzalon poll shows Rubio leading Demings, with 49 percent of voter support to Demings’ 47 percent, while the Susquehanna Poll shows Rubio leading with 47 percent of the vote, to Demings’ 44 percent. In both cases, the margin is narrow enough to keep Sen. Rubio anxious until November, especially with independent voters leaning Democrat in the Susquehanna Poll.
Both polls surveyed 500 voters, which means that the margin of error is 4.4 percent. Two silver linings for Rubio in the Fabrizio / Anazlon poll was his larger share of support from independent voters (48 percent vs Demings’ 45 percent) and Rubio’s support “persuadable” voters, described below:
“Persuadable voters are the 19 percent of the 50+ segment of the electorate who are not definitely voting for one of Rubio or Demings. Nine percent are Probably/Leaning toward voting for Rubio, seven percent are Probably/Leaning toward voting for Demings, while the rest are Undecided. They are more likely to be Independents and moderates than voters 50+ overall. They are pessimistic about the direction of the country, and more focused on economic issues for their vote. Nearly all Senate “Persuadables” are more positively inclined toward a candidate who prioritizes issues that protect seniors.” – Fabrizio / Anzalon Poll
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Other notable results from the Fabrizio / Anzalon poll included the following stats:
- The demographic group where Demings had the largest lead was among black voters over the age of 50, where she gets 79 percent of the vote to Rubio’s 17 percent.
- Demings enjoyed her second-highest lead was among college graduates, but that lead was much smaller by comparison, with Demings getting 55 percent to Rubio’s 42 percent.
- The demographic group where Rubio had the largest lead was among white voters over the age of 50, where he got 56 percent compared to Demings’ 41 percent.
- Rubio enjoyed his second-highest lead was among voters without a college degree, with Rubio getting 54 percent to Demings 42 percent.
- Women over 50 support Demings by only two percent more than Rubio, 49 to 47 percent.
- Hispanic voters over 50 support Rubio over Demings by only a two percent margin, 50 to 48 percent.
Notable results from the Susquehanna Poll include the following stats:
- Economic issues led all issue categories for the most influential issues influencing voters, with 54 percent naming it among their top two issues, followed by social issues, (defined as including gun control and abortion,) with 44 percent choosing it among their top issues.
- More voters chose the environment as one the top two issues influencing their vote than crime, health care or taxes
- 13 percent of voters surveyed chose health care among the top two issues influencing their vote.
- 16 percent of voters surveyed chose crime among the top two issues influencing their vote.
- 17 percent of voters surveyed chose taxes among the top issues influencing their vote.
Since 2004, O’Hern has worked with political campaigns in roles ranging from major projects involving nationwide digital marketing for U.S. Presidential candidates, U.S. Congressmen, state governors, and state representatives. O’Hern’s journalism background includes news reporting and editing for various organizations and news publications in Alabama and Florida since 2002. O’Hern graduated from Samford University in Birmingham, Ala with a degree in journalism and a minor in political science.