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Ron DeSantis, Not Trump, Offers the Best Path to the Future Republican Party

Matt OHern
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Ron DeSantis, Not Trump, Offers the Best Path to the Future Republican Party

Donald Trump has good reason to fear a potential challenge from Ron Desantis. Republican Party leaders are attempting dissuade Trump for a 2024 candidacy announcement slated for next week, and others are hoping the results elevate DeSantis, thanks to the governor’s truly outstanding night. Proving to be a positive outlier for the GOP, DeSantis not only surpassed expectations, but conquered territory once thought hopeless for the party, including major metro areas including the former liberal safe haven that was Miami-Dade.

While Georgia and Nevada finish tallying their votes, Florida was decided since the first hour after polls closed on Election Night. Nobody can deny that Trump’s reign as kingmaker of the Republican Party has come to a grinding halt. What should have been a red wave dissolved into steady seas, and the GOP failed to capitalize on a weakened Democratic Party, thanks to underachieving, gaffe-prone candidates who were endorsed by Trump in Republican primary elections. As the GOP has discovered, the conspiracy-minded, 2020 election result-denying candidates failed to appeal much further beyond the extreme Trump loyalist wing.

Rather than showing any evidence of renewed hope to dominate swing states necessary for a 2024 victory in 2022, Trump’s failed to attract support with record-high inflation dogging President Biden and the Democratic Party in power.

FLORIDA COUNTIES THAT RON DESANTIS FLIPPED TO RED IN 2022:

As Walker limped to a likely runoff in Georgia, Trump’s potential 2024 Republican rival one state south was winning formerly deep blue territory including Hillsborough County (Tampa), Duval County (Jacksonville), and even Miami-Dade County, which hasn’t been won by a Republican Presidential candidate since George H.W. Bush walloped Mike Dukakis in 1988.  See the map below featuring the counties DeSantis flipped from Democratic to Republican in 2022.

Republican Voter-Dominant Counties in North Carolina

Matt OHern
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Republican Voter-Dominant Counties in North Carolina

In the open U.S. Senate seat race between Republican Ted Budd and Democrat Cheri Beasley, Budd has averaged lead of approximately five percent, but to defeat Beasley, he will need high voter turnout in North Carolina’s most Republican-dominated counties. Those counties are listed and analyzed, below.

Randolph County, North Carolina: Republicans have 34,034 more voters than Democrats. Ted Budd Defeated Cheri Beasley by 59.6, (78.8% to 19.2%)

Randolph County has approximately 96,034 registered voters for the 2022 Midterm Election. The Republican Party has 49,905 registered voters in Randolph, compared to 15,871 registered Democratic Party voters, and 29,657 unaffiliated voters.

Demographics of Randolph County, North Carolina:

Race:

  • 76% of residents are white, compared to the state average of 61%
  • 4% of residents are black, compared to the state average of 20%
  • 13% of residents are hispanic, compared to the state average of 10%.
  • 1% of residents are asian, compared to the state average of 3%

Education:

  • 85% of residents are high school graduates, compared to 89% for the entire state.
  • 16% of residents are college graduates, compared to 34% for the entire state.

Income:

  • Median income in Randolph County is $$27,740, compared to $$35,254 for the entire state.
  • 13.6% of residents live at the poverty level, compared to 13% for the entire state.

Union County, North Carolina: Republicans have 29,068 more voters than Democrats. Ted Budd Defeated Cheri Beasley by 28.8, (63.4% to 34.6%)

Union County has 170,037 registered voters for the 2022 Midterm Election. The Republican Party has 68,335 registered voters, compared to 39,267 registered Democratic Party voters, and 61,338 unaffiliated voters.

Demographics of Union County, North Carolina:

Race:

  • 69% of residents are white, compared to the state average of 61%
  • 11% of residents are black, compared to the state average of 20%
  • 12% of residents are hispanic, compared to the state average of 10%.
  • 4% of residents are asian, compared to the state average of 3%

Education:

  • 90.2% of residents are high school graduates, compared to 89% for the entire state.
  • 39.5% of residents are college graduates, compared to 34% for the entire state.

Income:

  • Median income in Union County, North Carolina is $40,957, compared to $$35,254 for the entire state.
  • 7.4% of residents live at the poverty level, compared to 13% for the entire state.

Iredell County, North Carolina: Republicans have 27,751 more voters than Democrats. Ted Budd Defeated Cheri Beasley by 36.6 (67.2% to 30.6%)

Iredell County has135,160 registered voters for the 2022 Midterm Election. , the Republican Party has 55,751 registered voters, compared to 28,000 registered Democratic Party voters, and 50,526 voters.

Demographics of Iredel County, :

Race:

  • 73% of residents are white, compared to the state average of 61%
  • 9% of residents are black, compared to the state average of 20%
  • 9% of residents are hispanic, compared to the state average of 10%.
  • 2% of residents are asian, compared to the state average of 3%

Education:

  • 91.6% are high school graduates, compared to 89% for the entire state..
  • 33.2% of residents are college graduates, compared to 34% for the entire state.

Income:

  • Median income in Iredel County, North Carolina is $37,209 , compared to $$35,254 for the entire state.
  • 9.3% of residents live at the poverty level, compared to 13% for the entire state.
  • In North Carolina, the Republican Party has 2,222,180 registered voters, compared to 2,496,817 registered Democratic Party Voters, giving Democrats a significant lead of 274,637 voters, (or, put another way, 3.7 percent more voters)
  • North Carolina’s 2,635,189 voters with no party affiliation, (major or minor), account for 35 percent of the overall vote in North Carolina, making them the a larger bloc in the state.
  • Registered Democratic Party voters in North Carolina account for 33.7percent of all registered voters in the state.
  • Registered Republican Party voters in North Carolina account for 30 percent of all registered voters in the state.
  • The minor party with the highest percentage of registered voters in North Carolina is the Libertarian Party, with 50,154 registered voters, accounting for only 0.6 percent of all registered voters in the state. Libertarianism is based on fiscal conservatism and social liberalism, which means neither of the two major parties can count on Libertarian support in 2022, with abortion as a higher issue than past election cycles.

Predictions on the 2022 Midterm in Florida, Georgia and North Carolina

Matt OHern
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Predictions on the 2022 Midterm in Florida, Georgia and North Carolina

There has been a lot of talk about a red wave but I think there will be at least one swing state where democrats may fend off feisty challengers.

In Florida, I think Marco Rubio will benefit from Ron DeSantis’ popularity. A rising tide lifts all boats, and I predict that DeSantis will come close to a double-digit win over hapless Charlie Crist, with Rubio performing a few percentage points lower, beating Val Demings by a margin between four to six percent.

In Georgia, Brian Kemp, another popular governor in the south, should defeat Stacey Abrams by 5 to 7 percent. While Kemp will undoubtedly help Herschel Walker elevate his vote tally, I can’t picture Walker or incumbent Democrat Raphael Warnock winning the needed majority of voters to avoid a Senate runoff election. For the record, Georgia is one of only two states that holds runoffs from General Elections that don’t reach a majority. The other state: Louisiana. You can read more about Louisiana’s potential Senate-control shifting election on December 10th, HERE.

Finally, in North Carolina, the Tar Heel state,  Republican Ted Budd has led nearly every poll during the past two months vs Democratic candidate Cheri Beasley, but all of his margins have been just a hair above the margin of error. This race could go either way, but with the general momentum favoring Republicans in the final stretch, I predict a two-point margin of victory for Budd, moving him up from his congressional seat to the senate chamber. Independent voters in rural and suburban counties will make the difference

Independent Voters in North Carolina May Decide Budd vs. Beasley Senate Race

Matt OHern
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Independent Voters in North Carolina May Decide Budd vs. Beasley Senate Race

North Carolina’s contentious race for U.S. Senate may come down to the wire, but with Election Day less than a week away, Democratic candidate Cheri Beasley has trailed Republican Tedd Budd in each of the past four polls factored into Real Clear Politic’s Average, also known as the RCP Average. The most recent poll results published for the came on Oct. 20 from a Marist Poll. Among the poll’s respondents who said they are definitely voting in the 2022 midterm, Budd lead Beasley 49 – 45 percent, nearly matching his RCP average lead.

Since Budd’s lead is just outside the margin of error in most polls, North Carolina’s open senate seat may ultimately be decided by undecided independent voters.

RCP AVERAGE FOR TED BUDD VS CHERI BEASLEY

Budd currently has a 4.5 percent lead over Beasley in the RCP average. What’s more impressive is the fact that Budd led each poll taken during the month of October.

UNDECIDED VOTERS IN NORTH CAROLINA SENATE RACE:

Among all of the southeastern US, North Carolina is among three states with the highest amount of undecided voters for senate candidates.

PERCENTAGE OF NORTH CAROLINA VOTERS UNDECIDED IN BUDD VS BEASLEY SENATE RACE MOST RECENT POLLS

  • 2 PERCENT UNDECIDED IN EMERSON COLLEGE POLL. Budd leads Beasley by 5 percent in the same poll, 51 to 46.
  • 5 PERCENT UNDECIDED IN MARIST POLL. Budd leads Beasley by 4 percent in the same poll, 49 to 45.
  • 5 PERCENT UNDECIDED IN EASTERN CAROLINA UNIVERSITY POLL. Budd leads Beasley by 6 percent in the same poll, 50 to 44.
  • 13 PERCENT UNDECIDED IN WRAL TV – SURVEY USA POLL. Budd leads Beasley by 1 percent in the same poll, 43 to 42.

In North Carolina, the Republican Party has 2,222,180 registered voters, compared to 2,496,817 registered Democratic Party Voters, giving Democrats a significant lead of 274,637 voters, (or, put another way, 3.7 percent more voters)

North Carolina’s 2,635,189 voters with no party affiliation, (major or minor), account for 35 percent of the overall vote in North Carolina, making them the a larger bloc in the state.

Registered Democratic Party voters in North Carolina account for 33.7percent of all registered voters in the state.

Registered Republican Party voters in North Carolina account for 30 percent of all registered voters in the state.

The minor party with the highest percentage of registered voters in North Carolina is the Libertarian Party, with 50,154 registered voters, accounting for only 0.6 percent of all registered voters in the state. Libertarianism is based on fiscal conservatism and social liberalism, which means neither of the two major parties can count on Libertarian support in 2022, with abortion as a higher issue than past election cycles.

In North Carolina’s 2018 midterm election, 53 percent of all registered voters turned out to vote, including 55 percent of registered Democratic Party voters, 58 percent of registered Republicans, and 46 percent of unaffiliated voters voted. Earlier this week, the Charlotte Observer reported that early voting is outpacing 2018. Therefore, if voter turnout in North Carolina’s 2022 Midterm Election matches or beats the 2018 turnout figures, here’s what we can expect for 2022 Midterm ballot counts:

At least 1,212,186 ballots cast out of 2,635,189 voters registered as unaffiliated with any party.

At least 1,288,864 ballots cast out of 2,222,180 registered Republican voters.

At least 1,373,249 ballots cast out of 2,496,817 registered Democratic voters.

Despite three percent lower party participation in voting, Democrats still have a built-in advantage of 84,385 voters in this scenario.

If Republicans win 53% percent of 1,212,187 unaffiliated votes cast, that would give them 654,580 votes to 569,727 for Democrats, for a Republican net gain of 84, 853 votes, cancelling out the Democrats’ advantage of 84,385 more registered voters than registered Republicans.

Polls leading up to the 2022 Midterm election indicate much higher enthusiasm among Republican voters, so it’s safe to assume that Republicans will maintain a three percent edge over Democrats for overall turnout. With that conservative assumption (no pun intended) of a 3 percent higher Republican turnout in 2022, that would leave Democrats with only a 0.7% lead in turnout against Republicans and put the Senate in control of unaffiliated voters.

Kay Ivey and Katie Britt Dominating Alabama Gubernatorial, US Senate Polls

Matt OHern
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Kay Ivey and Katie Britt Dominating Alabama Gubernatorial, US Senate Polls

Alabama remains a dark red state with two Republican statewide candidates leading their respective polls in the final stretch to the 2022 Midterm Election. Incumbent Governor Kay Ivey leads Democrat candidate Yolanda Flowers by a 35 point-margin, 60 to 25 percent, in the latest poll by Alabama Daily News. The same poll shows Republican U.S. Senate candidate Katie Britt leading Democrat candidate Will Boyd, by a 29 point-margin, 57-28 percent.

Ivey is known as one of the most socially conservative governors in the nation after she signed one of the most strict abortion laws into effect. Britt, who is almost 40 years younger than Ivey, represents one of the GOP’s freshest faces in 2022. Britt serves as president and CEO of Alabama’s business council, and she is also on the Alabama Wildlife Federation Board of Directors. The campaign trail was familiar territory for Britt, who as a campaign manager for Senator Richard Shelby. She also practiced law at Butler Snow LLP.

For more news on Alabama government and politics, visit our Alabama political news section.

Georgia Counties that Vote Republican Most Consistently

Matt OHern
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Georgia Counties that Vote Republican Most Consistently

The 2022 Georgia Senate race between Raphael Warnock and Herschel Walker could come down to three counties in Georgia known as the most reliable Republican strongholds. Georgia is a unique state for political party strength evaluation for Republicans and Democrats, because Georgia voters don’t declare a party when they register to vote. The only occasion when Georgia voters effectively “choose” a party is in a primary election, when they choose the primary to participate in. While these factors complicate analysis, there are demographics and other data points to find consistent patterns of the majority of voters supporting Republican candidates.

Below is a list of Georgia’s largest counties that have consistently gone for Republican candidates in the past decade.

Cherokee County: 200,000+ voters.

Located northwest of Atlanta, Cherokee County has approximately 201,408 registered voters for the 2022 Midterm Election. During the past decade, the majority of Cherokee County voted for Romney in 2012, Trump in 2016 and Trump again in 2020. Republican strength was even more pronounced in the 2021 special runoff election for U.S. Senate, when 70.6% of Cherokee County voted for Republican David Perdue, and 70% voted for Kelly Loeffler in the other seat.

U.S. House Representative: Barry Loudermilk, (R)

Demographics of Cherokee County, Georgia:

Race:

  • 86% of residents are white, compared to the state average of 58.6%
  • 7% of residents are black, compared to the state average of 31.6%
  • 10.5% of residents are hispanic, compared to the state average of 9.5%.
  • 1.8% of residents are asian, compared to the state average of 4%

Education:

  • 92% of residents are high school graduates, compared to 87% for the entire state.
  • 38.2% of residents are college graduates, compared to 31.3% for the entire state.

Income:

  • Median income in Cherokee County is $82,740, compared to $58,700 for the entire state.
  • 7.5% of residents live at the poverty level, compared to 15.1% for the entire state.

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Forsyth County: 167,000+ voters.

Located in North central Georgia, Forsyth County has approximately 167,000 registered voters for the 2022 Midterm Election. During the past decade, the majority of Forsyth County voted for Romney in 2012, Trump in 2016 and Trump again in 2020. In the 2021 special runoff election for U.S. Senate, when 67.9% of Forsyth County voted for Republican David Perdue, and 67.3% voted for Republican Kelly Loeffler in the other seat.

U.S House Representatives:

Demographics of Forsyth County, Georgia:

Race:

79.2% of residents are white, compared to the state average of 58.6%
3.5% of residents are black, compared to the state average of 31.6%
9.5% of residents are hispanic, compared to the state average of 9.5%
12.9% of residents are asian, compared to the state average of 4%

Education:

  • 93% of residents are high school graduates, compared to 87% for the entire state.
  • 53% of residents are college graduates, compared to 31.3% for the entire state.

Income:

  • Median income in Forsyth County, Georgia is $107,00 compared to $58,700 for the entire state.
  • 5.7% of residents live at the poverty level, compared to 15.1% for the entire state.

Hall County: 130,000+ voters

Located in North central Georgia, Hall County neighbors Forsyth County and has approximately 130,000 registered voters for the 2022 Midterm Election. During the past decade, the majority of Hall County voters voted for Romney in 2012, Trump in 2016 and Trump again in 2020. In the 2021 Senate Special Election, 72.3% of Hall County voted for Republican David Perdue, and 71.8% voted for Republican Kelly Loeffler in the other seat.

U.S. House Representative: Andrew Clyde (R), District 9

Demographics of Hall County, Georgia:

Race:

  • 85% of residents are white, compared to the state average of 58.6%
  • 7% of residents are black, compared to the state average of 31.6%
  • 28% of residents are hispanic, compared to the state average of 9.5%
  • 2% of residents are asian, compared to the state average of 4%

Education:

  • 79% are high school graduates, compared to 87% for the entire state.
  • 24% of residents are college graduates, compared to 31.3% for the entire state.

Income:

  • Median income in Hall County, Georgia is $62,984 compared to $58,700 for the entire state.
  • % of residents live at the poverty level, compared to 15.1% for the entire state.

Kemp Holds Solid Lead Over Abrams While Warnock Deadlocked with Walker

Matt OHern
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Kemp Holds Solid Lead Over Abrams While Warnock Deadlocked with Walker

Georgia Governor Brian Kemp continues to outpace Democratic challenger Stacey Abrams in his bid for re-election. Earlier today, two different polls showed Kemp with a seven-point lead, besting Abrams 52 percent to 45 percent in the Trafalgar / Daily Wire poll, while an Eastern Carolina University poll showed Kemp defeating Abrams 51 percent to 44 percent.

In the nationally-followed Senate race, incumbent Democrat Raphael Warnock led Herschel Walker by two points in ECU’s poll, but Warnock trailed by two in the Daily Wire Poll, with Walker taking 49 percent to Warnock’s 47. Warnock’s inability to expand a lead versus Walker is being interpreted as an ominous sign for Senate Democrats across the nation. Following an ex-girlfriend’s claim that Walker helped her fund an abortion, Walker has denied the allegations and managed to maintain most of his support among surveyed Republicans. An important factor to consider is that Georgia is one of only two states that require a majority vote in the General Election to avoid a Runoff Special Election. The mandate makes Libertarian candidate Chase Oliver ‘s presence exceptionally pivotal, as he may absorb enough votes to prevent Walker or Warnock from surpassing 50 percent. If the runoff determines party control of the Senate, both parties will devote all of their resources to back the respective candidates.

For more stories on Georgia politics, visit our Georgia political news section.

FLASHBACK: After Only 2 Years as Governor, Charlie Crist Ran for Senate During Great Recession

Matt OHern
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FLASHBACK: After Only 2 Years as Governor, Charlie Crist Ran for Senate During Great Recession

After only two years and four months as Florida Governor, Charlie Crist announced on May 12, 2009, in the midst of a housing market collapse in Florida and a national recession, that he was running for U.S. Senate, rather than re-election. Undoubtedly, Crist and his campaign hope those facts were forgotten long ago by undecided viewers who tuned into his debate against Ron DeSantis. Crist attacked DeSantis about mere rumors of DeSantis contemplating a 2024 Presidential campaign, asserting that such ambition for higher office hindered DeSantis from effectively serving as a governor.

Nobody is surprised that Crist came out swinging, while DeSantis stayed quiet. Crist has been trailing DeSantis in the polls and the distance widened to 11 points in the most recent poll, which was conducted by Florida Atlantic University. Crist hit is talking points with confidence throughout the debate, but even if Crist persuaded 100 percent of undecided voters, he may still fall short and lose his a statewide race for the third consecutive time.

Perhaps the most ironic part of Crist’s criticism regarding DeSantis’ potential run for a higher office is the fact that when Crist was governor, he appointed his own chief of staff, George LeMieux, to replace Sen. Mel Martinez, who had just resigned, despite the fact that Crist had already told his own advisors that LeMieux wasn’t qualified for the job. After a meeting in the middle of the night with LeMieux, Crist changed his mind and appointed LeMieux, despite the apparent conflict of interest and obvious power play to prevent a potential challenger in a Republican Primary for the same seat.

If anyone knows about higher ambition clouding judgement, it’s Charlie Crist.

RELATED: The Story That Charlie Crist Hopes You’ve Forgotten

For more stories on Florida politics, visit our Florida political news section.

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