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Three Reasons Why Trump’s 2024 CPAC Poll Victory is Meaningless – Opinion

Matt OHern
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Three Reasons Why Trump’s 2024 CPAC Poll Victory is Meaningless – Opinion

For the average observer of American politics, it’s easy to interpret recent straw polls conducted by CPAC as an indication of overwhelming party-wide support for Donald Trump to be the Republican Nominee for President in 2024. There are two key reasons why it’s foolish to take any straw poll seriously, but especially the most recent polls pitting Trump vs a handful of other candidates.

REASON 1: Trump’s total number of Republican opponents, if any, won’t be anything close to the tally of the 2016 field.

Trump faced 16 Republican opponents in 2016, including multiple long-established major names in the party who received millions from major donors. The large field fractured the opposition, allowing Trump to win primaries with mere pluralities through the vast majority of the primary campaign season. In 2024, the largest number of Republican rivals Trump will face should be less than three, and even more likely, only one candidate, due to fear of voter backlash. Should he face only one opponent, that brings someone such as DeSantis from a 25 to 30 point deficit to a tie, virtual tie, or lead.

REASON 2: CPAC is composed of the most staunch political activists on the right wing of the party, not average Republican voters.

Trends, opinions and preferences of the majority of members of CPAC and other political organizations comprised of party activists inherently clash with the sentiment of average American voters. For example, in 2011, Herman Cain won a string of straw polls, including “Presidency 5” , a conference held in Orlando that was hosted by the American Conservative Union, the same organization which hosts C-PAC.

In that straw poll, Texas Governor Rick Perry finished in second place, and ultimate 2012 nominee Mitt Romney finished in third place, fairing only 3.1% higher than Senator Rick Santorum. For those of you who don’t recall, Cain didn’t even make it to 2012 as a candidate, and Perry officially left the race less than two weeks after the start of 2012.

The reason for Cain and Perry’s success in Presidency 5? Attendees wanted to show their staunch opposition to the establishment favor, Mitt Romney. Trump can no longer expect an anti-establishment favorite pick to work in his favorite, because whether Trump likes it or not, he IS the party establishment at this point.

REASON 3: Multiple Trump opponents didn’t attend CPAC

Due to allegations of sexual misconduct by CPAC’s chairman Matt Schlapp, multiple Republicans opted out of the event this year, including Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, former Vice President Mike Pence, South Carolina’s Sen. Tim Scott, and Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin.

Florida State Senator’s Bill for Blogger Registration Mirrors ‘Woke’ Totalitarian Leftist Policy – Opinion

Matt OHern
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Florida State Senator’s Bill for Blogger Registration Mirrors ‘Woke’ Totalitarian Leftist Policy – Opinion

North central Florida voters have supported state senator and former house representative Jason Brodeur based as on his campaign promises to limit government bureaucracy. For more than a decade, the rising star in Florida politics developed a reputation as one of the most conservative members of Florida’s legislature which is why one of his latest bills came as a major surprise and drew national attention from conservatives including Newt Gingrich.

Brodeur’s bill, SB 1316, would require a written record of whether a blogger is being paid to write an online post about the governor, another Florida Cabinet official, or a state legislator, as well as who pays them. Bloggers would be fined $25 a day, up to $2,500, if they fail to provide the information.

The bill immediately sparked controversy, landing at the top of the Drudge Report. Political pundits across the state and the nation immediately responded with criticism for what they deemed as an oppressive, big brother stance against free speech. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich tweeted, “The idea that bloggers criticizing a politician should register with the government is insane. It is an embarrassment that it is a Republican state legislator in Florida who introduced a bill to that effect. He should withdraw it immediately.”

Florida political talk show host Ed Dean shared his commentary on Brodeur’s bill via a Facebook post that read: “A new Florida proposal would make bloggers who write about Gov. DeSantis, the AG or any other members of the Florida executive cabinet or legislature MUST register with the state or face fines. And this didn’t come from a Democrat but from a GOP State Senator Jason Brodeur. What happen, you got some bad publicity or something? Totally against free speech and Unconstitutional. Wokeism from my side of the aisle.”

Brodeur defended his bill on Twitter, writing: “Do you want to know the truth about the so-called “blogger” bill? It brings the current pay-to-play scheme to light and gives voters clarity as to who is influencing their elected officials, just like how we treat lobbyists. It’s an electioneering issue, not a free speech issue”

Florida First Amendment Foundation, whose executive director Bobby Block compared the bill to similar laws in “apartheid South Africa, the countries behind the Iron Curtain, the USSR, Zaire, Burkina Faso, and socialist Ethiopia.”

In 2014 Russia’s President Vladimir Putin implemented a policy known as the “blogger’s law” which required bloggers with more than 3,000 readers to register with the Roskomnadzor, the country’s agency for media oversight. No word has come from Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis yet on if he would sign the bill if it passed through the Florida House and Florida Senate.

Tuberville Leads Fight Against Biden’s Plans to Allow Biological Males to Compete in Women’s Sports

Matt OHern
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Tuberville Leads Fight Against Biden’s Plans to Allow Biological Males to Compete in Women’s Sports

Alabama Senator Tommy Tuberville (R) lead 18 Republican colleagues in reintroducing the “Protection of Women and Girls in Sports Act” to preserve Title IX protections for female athletes and ensure fair, safe competition in women’s sports across the country. The legislation would counteract the Biden administration’s plans to finalize rules in May that will force institutions to allow biological males to share spaces with females and compete in women’s sports.

“Throughout my coaching career, I saw the incomparable success of Title IX and the educational and personal opportunities sports have provided to millions of female athletes.” Tuberville said in a press release. “For more than 50 years, this law has empowered young women to grow personally, compete professionally, and receive scholarships to further their education. The positive impacts of a fair playing field in women’s sports are unmatched, but the Biden administration is forcing female athletes to the sidelines by allowing biological males to compete where they do not belong. It’s unfair, it’s unsafe, and it’s wrong. We cannot stand by and let girls and women in sports lose to the radical left’s agenda. I am proud to introduce this legislation, and will continue fighting to preserve a level playing field for all current and future female athletes.”

If signed into law, the Protection of Women and Girls in Sports Act would ensure Title IX provisions treat gender as “recognized based solely on a person’s reproductive biology and genetics at birth.” It would also ban recipients of federal funding from operating, sponsoring, or facilitating athletic programs that permit a male to participate in a women’s sporting event.

The legislation is endorsed by Independent Women’s Voice, Concerned Women for America, and Heritage Action for America.

Tuberville’s bill was cosponsored by U.S. Senators Mike Lee (R-UT), James Lankford (R-OK), Tom Cotton (R-AR), Marsha Blackburn (R-TN), Roger Marshall, M.D. (R-KS), Ted Budd (R-NC), Kevin Cramer (R-ND), Cindy Hyde-Smith (R-MS), Mike Braun (R-IN), Rick Scott (R-FL), Jim Risch (R-ID), Mike Crapo (R-ID), Bill Hagerty (R-TN), Marco Rubio (R-FL), Joni Ernst (R-IA), Cynthia Lummis (R-WY), Steve Daines (R-MT), and Josh Hawley (R-MO).

Mississippi Senator Joins Effort to Protect Pro-Life Pregnancy Centers

Matt OHern
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Mississippi Senator Joins Effort to Protect Pro-Life Pregnancy Centers

U.S. Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith (R-Miss.) cosponsored a bill to enhance security for pro-life pregnancy centers and to protect staff and patients from potential violence and extremism.

According to a press release from Smith, the Pregnancy Center Security Act (S.565) would create a grant program for pregnancy-help organizations to implement security upgrades, including the installation of security cameras and systems. It was introduced Tuesday by U.S. Senator James Risch (R-Idaho), with Senators Mike Crapo (R-Idaho), Ted Cruz (R-Texas), Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), and Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) as additional cosponsors.

“Pregnancy centers offer hope and support for women, girls, and their unborn children. It’s offensive for these facilities to be threatened by violence and vandalism, and I fully support this legislation to help protect them and the good work they are doing,” said Hyde-Smith, chair of the Senate Pro-Life Caucus.  “Their protection represents a new responsibility in a post-Roe America as more pregnancy centers are established across the country to support mothers and their babies.”

“Under the Biden administration, the fight to protect life has become increasingly dangerous. Pro-life pregnancy centers across the nation, which provide vital resources for women, the unborn, and our communities, have become targets for violent attacks.  To ensure these life-saving centers can continue to safely operate, the Pregnancy Center Security Act would create a grant program to enable security upgrades,” said Risch.  “While the fight for life is far from over, the Pregnancy Center Security Act is a step in the right direction to ensure those on the frontlines protecting life are safe.”

The United States has experienced a dangerous uptick in violence against pro-life pregnancy centers, organizations, and churches following the Supreme Court decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization.  

The Pregnancy Center Security Act would:
1.    Establish a grant program for pregnancy-help organizations to implement security upgrades, including the installation of security cameras and systems, and update facilities for Americans with Disabilities Act (ADA) compliance.
2.    Ensure organizations that perform, assist, counsel, prescribe, refer to an abortion provider, or encourage abortion do not receive federal funds.

Heartbeat International, Students for Life Action, Concerned Women for America Legislative Action Committee, CatholicVote, SBA Pro-Life America, and Family Research Council support the measure.  Read their endorsements here.

Hyde-Smith on Tuesday addressed pro-life issues in the aftermath of the Dobbs decision during testimony at a Senate Judiciary Committee hearing on the Equal Rights Amendment.

Bill to Block IRS Snooping on Taxpayers Introduced by Two Southern Senators

Matt OHern
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Bill to Block IRS Snooping on Taxpayers Introduced by Two Southern Senators

A bill aimed at blocking expansion of the Internal Revenue Service and its surveillance capabilities was submitted by Tennessee Sen. Bill Hagerty (R) and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott (R) this week. Idaho Senator Mike Crapo and Senate Republican colleagues joined them to introduce the “Prohibiting IRS Financial Surveillance Act.”

“The Biden Administration and Democrats are attempting massive government overreach by hiring thousands of new IRS agents to snoop on the finances of the American people,” said Senator Hagerty in a press release. “I’m pleased to join my colleagues in this legislation that would put an end to any future attempts by our government to spy on Americans.”

“Under the Biden administration and progressive leadership, the IRS has proposed outrageous actions that threaten the privacy of American taxpayers,” said Senator Scott. “In light of this pattern, this legislation will prevent the IRS from taking future steps to encroach on the lives and finances of everyday Americans.”

“Americans are justifiably concerned about providing sensitive customer data to the IRS, an agency with an extensive history of leaks, hacks and other violations of taxpayer confidentiality,” said Senator Crapo. “They loudly rejected the IRS bank reporting dragnet when it was originally proposed, and this legislation will prevent the IRS from turning banks and credit unions into private investigators for law-abiding Americans.”

The bill comes one year after Hagerty introduced his Stop the Nosy Obsession with Online Payments, or SNOOP, Act, a bill to strike the tax code provision inserted by the Biden Administration in the American Rescue Plan that requires third-party payment platforms to report businesses’ gross transaction volumes totaling more than $600 to the Internal Revenue Service. Hagerty resubmitted the legislation at the start of the 118th Congress after the IRS announced a one-year delay in increasing reporting thresholds for third-party payment platforms.

This bill is endorsed by the Consumer Bankers Association (CBA), Credit Union National Association (CUNA), American Bankers Association (ABA), Independent Community Bankers of America (ICBA), U.S. Chamber of Commerce, National Association of Federally-Insured Credit Unions (NAFCU), Americans for Tax Reform (ATR), and the National Taxpayers Union (NTU).

Florida Democrats Double-Down on Losing Formula

Matt OHern
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Florida Democrats Double-Down on Losing Formula

With long-standing havens of Democratic support flipping from blue to red in the 2022 Election, it was natural to assume a change of leadership in the Florida Democratic Party was imminent. To nobody’s surprise, former Florida Democratic Chair Manny Diaz resigned as chairman of the party. Earlier this week, Florida Democrats chose to make Nikki Fried their new leader. The decision defies all logic when you dig into the data and consider the trends seen across the state.

Of all the anomalies in Florida politics during the past decade, perhaps no outlier rivals the surprising victory of Nikki Fried (D) when she edged-out state representative Matt Caldwell (R) by less than one percent in the 2018 election for Florida Commissioner of Agriculture and Consumer. Fried was the lone Democrat to win a statewide office, and in her most recent campaign in a Democratic Gubernatorial primary versus Charlie Crist, Fried lost by 59 percent to 35 percent. Crist, who was once a Republican and has a more moderate record than Fried, went on to lose in landslide to Gov. Ron DeSantis.

Cristi’s embarrassing loss to DeSantis in 2022 came after Democrats chose Bernie Sanders’ endorsed candidate Andrew Gillum over Gwen Graham as their 2018 nominee for governor. Ultimately, Gillum not only lost to DeSantis but embarrassed by multiple corruption scandals that were eventually exposed about Gillum. Mega donors to the party including prominent attorney John Morgan said Gillum was a terrible choice in hindsight and many expressed regret over not nominating Graham, who touted a more moderate record and was the daughter of a former governor who enjoyed decent bipartisan support.

Fried’s blowout loss to Crist followed by Miami-Dade and Hillsborough County flipping red for an outspoken staunch conservative like DeSantis should have made it abundantly clear to Florida Democrats that there is no notable trend toward the left wing of the party. They’ve seen a former lead in voter registration evaporate and devolve into a major deficit. In 2018, Democrats outnumbered Republicans by nearly 300,000. Today, Florida Republicans outnumber registered Democrats by 400,000.

Based on the aforementioned trends, Republican are the ones who should be celebrating Nikki Fried’s new position as chair of the Florida Democratic Party.

Poll Shows 1 in 3 Americans Support Dividing the United States

Matt OHern
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Poll Shows 1 in 3 Americans Support Dividing the United States

New results from a Rasmussen Poll released today show that 34 percent of Americans support the idea of a “national divorce” between red states and blue states.

Rasmussen’s survey of 1,000 U.S. Likely Voters was conducted on February 21-23, and was spurred by Georgia Republican Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, who has gained national fame for controversial remarks during her tenure, tweeting last month, “We need a national divorce. We need to separate by red states and blue states and shrink the federal government”?

Rasmussen’s poll data revealed that 34 percent of voters agree with that statement, including 14 percent who strongly agree. Fifty-seven percent (57%) disagree with Greene’s call for a “national divorce,” including 14 percent who strongly agree. Forty-seven percent of Republicans at least somewhat agree that red states and blue states “need a national divorce,” as do 26% of Democrats and 27% of voters not affiliated with either major party. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC.

Other notable findings from the poll revealed:

  • 41 percent blamed Democrats for dividing America.
  • 32 percent said Republicans are more to blame for dividing America.
  • 25 percent believe both parties are about equally to blame.
  • 29 percent of Democratic voters said their own party is more to blame for dividing America.
  • 15 percent of GOP Republican voters said their own party is to blame.
  • 34 percent of unaffiliated voters blame Democrats more for making America politically divided, while 33 percent blame Republicans and 27 percent think both parties are equally to blame.
  • 60 percent of Democrats rate Biden as doing a good or excellent job in terms of uniting the country, but just 12% of Republicans and 28% of unaffiliated voters agree. Seventy-seven (77%) percent of Republicans, 22% of Democrats and 53% of unaffiliated voters give Biden a poor rating on uniting Americans.
  • 40 percent of men think America needs a national divorce.
  • 27 percent of women think America needs a “national divorce.”
  • 51 percent of whites, 28 percent of blacks and 58 percent of other minorities rate Biden as doing a poor job of uniting the country.
  • 42 percent of whites, 36 percent of black voters and 41 percent of other minorities blame Democrats more for dividing the country, while 35 percent of whites, 29 percent of black voters and 24 percent of other minorities say Republicans are more to blame.
  • Black voters (38 percent) are more likely than whites or other minorities (both 33%) to at least somewhat agree with Greene’s call for a “national divorce” between red states and blue states.
  • A majority of voters 40 and older rate Biden as doing a poor job of uniting the country. Voters under 40 are more likely than their elders to agree that a “national divorce” is needed, while a majority of voters 65 and older Strongly Disagree with Greene’s idea.

Nikki Haley Beats Joe Biden in 2024 Presidential Election Poll by Rasmussen

Matt OHern
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Nikki Haley Beats Joe Biden in 2024 Presidential Election Poll by Rasmussen

Former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley made headlines with her presidential candidacy, and a new poll by Rasmussen shows her ahead of President Joe Biden, with 45 percent of voter support to 41 percent for Biden.

According to Rasmussen’s results, if the 2024 election were between Haley and Biden, 45 percent of likely voters would vote for Haley and 41 percent would vote for Biden, and 10 percent say they’d vote for some other candidate.

The survey of 900 U.S. Likely Voters was conducted on February 16 and 19-20, 2023 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC.

Yesterday, Haley was interviewed by Maria Baritromo, where Haley asserted that voters across the country aren’t content with Biden’s administration and Biden’s performance as Commander in Chief.

“It’s time for a new direction,” Haley saieI think we need to leave the status quo of the past. I mean, you look at how America is vs falling into socialism. You look at how… this national self-loathing has taken over our country, and we’ve got real issues, whether it’s $31 trillion in debt, whether it’s that our children have fallen so far behind, we don’t know how to catch them up, whether it’s security and crime on our streets or open borders or the fact that our minds are being closed by woke ideology. The idea that we’d look up at the sky and see a Chinese five alone looking back at us, there’s no shortage of issues. But what I will tell you is Americans want more. They want something different, and they want it now, and we can’t do enough to make sure that Joe Biden’s last days are ahead of him. 

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