New Poll Shows Raphael Warnock Ahead of Herschel Walker
With the balance of power in the U.S. Senate possibly at stake, the heated race in between Sen. Raphael Warnock and Herschel Walker has elevated Georgia’s open seat as one of the most watched in the country.
Today, a new poll from Quinnipiac University showed Warnock leading Walker, 52 percent to 46 percent among 1,278 likely Georgia voters who were surveyed from September 8th– 12th, with a margin of error of +/- 2.7
percentage points.
Notable stats from the poll include:
- Democrats (97 – 3 percent) and independents (55 – 41 percent) back Warnock, while Republicans (91 – 6 percent) back Walker.
- Nearly all likely voters (96 percent) who support a candidate in the Senate race say their minds are made up about how they will cast their vote, while 4 percent say they might change their minds before the election.
- Fifty percent of likely voters have a favorable opinion of Raphael Warnock, while 44 percent have an
unfavorable opinion of him.
- Forty percent of likely voters have a favorable opinion of Herschel Walker, while 51 percent have an
unfavorable opinion of him.
- Nineteen percent of likely voters say one reason for their vote for U.S. Senator will be to express support for Joe Biden, while 29 percent say one reason for their vote for U.S. Senator will be to express opposition to Joe Biden, and 50 percent say Joe Biden will not be a factor in their vote.
- Fourteen percent of likely voters say one reason for their vote for U.S. Senator will be to express support for Donald Trump, while 18 percent say one reason for their vote for U.S. Senator will be to express opposition to Donald Trump, and 67 percent say Donald Trump will not be a factor in their vote.
- Asked to choose the most urgent issue facing Georgia today, inflation (41 percent) ranks first among
likely voters followed by abortion (12 percent), election laws (12 percent), and gun violence (12 percent).
- Among Republicans, inflation (73 percent) ranks first with no other issue reaching double digits.
- Among Democrats, the top issues are abortion (23 percent), election laws (17 percent), racial inequality (17 percent), gun violence (14 percent), and health care (12 percent).
- Among independents, inflation (43 percent) ranks first followed by election laws (13 percent), abortion
(12 percent), and gun violence (12 percent).
- For the 2022 general elections, a majority of likely voters (54 percent) plan to vote in person at an early
voting location, 33 percent plan to vote in person on Election Day, and 12 percent plan to vote early by mail or absentee ballot.
Since Joe Biden’s surprise victory over Donald Trump in 2020, Georgia has eclipsed Florida as the South’s top swing state.
Prior to Quinnipiac Poll Results published this week, a Trafalgar Group poll showed Walker leading Warnock, 48 percent to 47 percent. and an Emerson College poll showed Walker ahead of Warnock, 47 to 44.3., but that apparent turn of fortune for Walker proved to be a mirage upon further inspection, because they were the same two polls that showed Walker leading Warnock before Walker’s summer drought, when he trailed in seven of eight polls, and tied Warnock 46-46 in an early June poll conducted by Eastern Carolina University.
DEMOCRATS SHOULDN’T PUT TOO MUCH CONFIDENCE IN QUINNIPIAC
Georgia Democrats can ask their neighbors to the south just how much confidence they have in Quinnipiac’s gauge of senate and gubernatorial races. In the 2018 Midterm Election, Quinnipiac’s final poll before that election showed former Tallahasee Mayor Andrew Gillum leading then Congressman Ron DeSantis by seven percent, and former Senator Bill Nelson leading then Governor Rick Scott by seven percent for Senate.
