For the past year, I’ve followed two gubernatorial races especially close: Tennesse’s Republican Primary and Florida’s Republican Primary. Last week, Tennessee State Rep. Monty Fritts earned 23% of the vote, which was only high enough for third place overall, but it was remarkably higher than what Fritts was averaging in any major poll throughout the primary race. Fritts beat the independent polling average by about 16 percentage points and even doubled his showing in the late internal polls. That’s a very substantial polling miss for his support.
Imagine if Fritts had dropped out of the race and the majority of his supporters had voted against the establishment’s choice (Marsha Blackburn) by voting for John Rose. Blackburn would have lost a race where she had been enjoying a double-digit lead.
Fritts’ core base of supporters were extremely similar to the most vocal supporters of Florida’s Bobby Williams. Both oppose major corporate donor influence in elections and compensate with small dollar donations amassed by a groundswell of passionate grassroots activists. A crucial fact to consider in Florida’s race is the fact that as many as 30% of Republican primary voters could still be undecided. That’s a potentially huge opening for an underdog to exploit. If Williams ends up with double-digit support, it could result in several major twists that will shock mainstream media.