From the 10,000-foot view, the issue of abortion is a game-changer for the Democratic Party in the 2022 mid terms., but Biden, Pelosi and Schumer will end up with fool’s gold if they expect abortion rights alone to prevent the congress from flipping. The latest proof is from a recent Reuters Poll, where the economy remains the undisputed top concern of voters.
For the 43rd-consecutive week, a plurality of voters surveyed named the economy as the nation’a most important issue, with 33% of voters, including 42% of Republicans and 24% of Democrats naming it their top issue. Crime was the second-highest category for voters in both parties, yet it came in at 11%, merely an afterthought by comparison.
While there’s no doubt that young liberal female turnout will increase in November, social issues won’t outweigh a housing market downturn, inflation and other financial challenges. An important fact for Democrats to consider as they craft their campaign messaging is that when voters are wondering how they will put food on their table, social issues go to the backburner. Middle-aged voters, especially those approaching their 50’s, won’t shake the fear of seeing their 401k’s evaporate to focus on the arduous and battle to expand abortion access. In northern and West Coast states, where abortion laws aren’t strict, residents won’t see any new restrictions on abortion, which means that statewide candidates will have to get far more thoughtful with their pitches to suburban families who see no changes impacting their local region. They may view Democratic culture wars as a diversion from other pressing issues.
That leaves southern states and the mid-west, ”Deep South” and Appalachian states, where far more voters consider themselves Christian conservatives. National news outlets seem to forget that those socially conservative voters will be more inspired to vote Republican, which may cancel-out social liberal turnout where Republicans have a decent lead of active registered voters..
Republicans have a tougher path to flip the House, but Democrats still face even greater odds to maintain their control, regardless of the Supreme Court’s overturning Roe vs. Wade.
Since 2004, O’Hern has worked with political campaigns in roles ranging from major projects involving nationwide digital marketing for U.S. Presidential candidates, U.S. Congressmen, state governors, and state representatives. O’Hern’s journalism background includes news reporting and editing for various organizations and news publications in Alabama and Florida since 2002. O’Hern graduated from Samford University in Birmingham, Ala with a degree in journalism and a minor in political science.