As the clock ticks down to 2024 Election Day, North Carolina is arguably the most problematic swing state for political analysts and pollsters to predict an electoral outcome confidently. Even before Hurricane Helene wreaked havoc on North Carolina’s residents and infrastructure, the Tarheel State’s regional differences posed unique challenges for former President Donald Trump to prevent Kamala Harris from flipping the state blue.
Trump eeked out a win over Biden by 1.4% in 2020, with 50.1% of the vote to Biden’s share of 48.7%. Throughout Biden’s re-election campaign, Trump enjoyed a polling lead average that was around 5% most months. Since Biden’s exit and Kamala Harris entrance, the most recent polls show Harris with a small lead or in a virtual tie with Trump.
In statewide races, Democrats haven’t won a US Senate seat or won the majority of votes for president since 2008, but North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper is a Democrat who upset incumbent Republican Gov. Pat McCrory in 2016, and held off Republican Lt. Governor Dan Forest in 2020.
North Carolina’s demographics can be analyzed in 4 different sections:
• Western North Carolina: Home to the majority of rural voters who reliably vote conservative but two counties that are heavily populated by academic professionals and college students who typically vote Democratic.
• The Research Triangle: A mixture of academia and medical professionals.
• Charlotte Metro Area: The largest city in the state, which votes for Democrats by a reliably wide margin.
• Eastern North Carolina: Tourism thrives along the coastal community, along with upstart small businesses launched by young investors in cities such as Wilmington.
An influx of former New York residents also complicates the grand picture. More North Carolina transplants were born in New York than in any other state. Since the COVID pandemic, Democratic strongholds gained the most new residents from New York. Mecklenburg County is home to the state’s largest city, Charlotte.
Throughout North Carolina, 46% of all residents were born outside North Carolina — accounting for nearly 5 million people, according to Carolina Demography at the University of North Carolina. Of those, about 10% were born in New York, the leading birthplace of those born outside North Carolina.
Education Levels and the “Diploma Divide”
Across the nation, education level is the new leading indicator of a voter’s intent to vote for Trump or Harris. Federal data released by Lumina Foundation showed 54.4% of working-age adults in North Carolina have earned a postsecondary degree or credential of value, roughly equivalent to the national attainment rate of 54.3%.
Blue Counties that will play a pivotal role in the 2024 Election:
Watauga County is 83% white, but Biden won by 8.3 points, 53.3% to 45%.
Buncombe County is home to Asheville and is a deep blue county, where Biden defeated Trump by more than 20 points.
Hoke County went blue by double digits in 2020, with Biden earning 54.6% of the vote to Trump’s 43.8%.
Pitt County has voted blue since 2008. In 2020, Biden won by just under a ten-point margin, with 54.1% of the vote to Trump’s 44.6%.