Brian Kemp on a Ticket with Trump or DeSantis Could Improve GOP Odds for Victory in 2024
Whether the 2024 Republican nominee is Trump or DeSantis, they’ll need to retake Georgia in the win column for Republicans if they have any hope of winning enough electoral votes overall. Democratic voter registration has increased in Georgia, thanks in large part to a new generation of young, female suburban voters throughout the Atlanta Metro region. In 2020, Biden was able to build on Hillary Clinton’s vote shares in the densely-populated Metro Atlanta counties of Gwinnett, Cobb, and Henry, increasing her vote shares of 50%, 48%, and 50% to 58%, 56%, and 60%, respectively–in all three cases, the best showing for a non-Georgian Democrat since John F. Kennedy in the 1960 election.
Kemp, who won re-election 7.5 against a well-known and extremely well-funded Stacey Abrams could improve the 2024 Republican nominee’s margin just enough among certain demographics to tip the state in the GOP’s favor. Adding Kemp to the ticket as a VP would likely bring an improved especially middle aged women, who went for Biden by a 16-point margin, and women under 20, who went for Biden by a 33-point margin. Kemp and Trump have had their fair share of differences over a variety of issues. In 2022, Kemp condemned Trump for hosting Kanye West and holocaust-denier Nick Fuentes. In 2020, Kemp drew the ire of Trump for not removing Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger after the electoral vote count went unchanged. “Racism, antisemitism and denial of the Holocaust have no place in the Republican Party and are completely un-American.” nation’s most prominent white nationalist figure,” said Kemp.
One major area where Kemp gained favor with all Republicans was his pro-business stance during the COVID-19 crisis. Georgia was one of the earliest states to lift lockdown restrictions. Kemp’s outlook on COVID restrictions were extremely similar to DeSantis’, but Kemp didn’t make as much of a spectacle on cable television as DeSantis.
Kemp’s balance of business support with a low-key approach to his public appearances have limited his name recognition compared to governors such as DeSantis, but that personality difference could prove to be a positive counter-balance as a Vice President who would likely be paired with Trump or DeSantis at the top of the 2024 ticket.
Georgia political talk show host Ben Burnett is a believer in Kemp.
“Brian Kemp knows how to build a ground game, is firm in his beliefs and mild-mannered enough to be likable,” said Burnett. “If you are a conservative who wants to win the Presidency, then you need somebody who can go to Davos and represent conservative principles in a likable way. He checks a ton of boxes.”
In 2020, exit polls revealed that Trump lost Georgia in large part to female voters, especially middle aged women, who went for Biden by a 16-point margin, and women under 20, who went for Biden by a 33-point margin. In 2022, Kemp easily won re-election despite Warnock defeating Walker. 2022 exit polls showed Kemp winning female voters aged 45-64, a group which Trump lost by one percent in 2020. Perhaps the most striking difference was with women aged 65+, where Kemp improved on Trump’s margin of victory by five percent, take 57 percent compared to Trump’s 52. Trump-protege and Senate candidate Herschel Walker Democratic voter registration gains in Georgia are directly attributable to the new generation of suburban voters throughout the Atlanta Metro region. Biden was able to build on Hillary Clinton’s vote shares in the densely-populated Metro Atlanta counties of Gwinnett, Cobb, and Henry, increasing her vote shares of 50%, 48%, and 50% to 58%, 56%, and 60%, respectively–in all three cases, the best showing for a non-Georgian Democrat since John F. Kennedy in the 1960 election.
