Hurricane Ian’s Potential Impact on DeSantis vs. Crist
Disclaimer: Political trends and are never as important as the lives impacted by an act of nature, but the 2022 Midterm Election is less than 40 days away, and Hurricane Ian’s devastation made an undeniable impact in every aspect of life in Florida.
IAN: A DOUBLE-EDGED SWORD FOR DESANTIS
Coincidentally, the region of Florida that suffered the most damage from Ian is also the county where Florida Republicans have the largest lead of registered voters against Democrats, with 226,025 registered Republican voters vs. 128,673 registered Democratic voters, for an impressive lead of 97,352 registered voters.( Source: Lee County Florida Supervisor of Elections.) Keep in mind that DeSantis defeated Andrew Gillum by only 32,463 votes. Four years prior, Crist lost by only 1 percent of the vote, with 64,145 fewer votes than former Governor Rick Scott.
In the wake of any natural disaster, governors face the inherent risk of negative response to any perceived errors during the state’s recovery efforts, but they also get two unique opportunities to improve their public perception. When governors are forced to collaborate with a President of an opposing party, there can be a mutually beneficial relationship and an unrivaled opportunity to impress independent voters. Outside of any potential botched recovery response effort, the biggest risk DeSantis faces is angering his own base if they view him as being to warm with President Biden during the upcoming visit. Former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie angered Republicans across the nation when he praised President Obama’s management of the disaster response. While Christie’s actions angered the GOP base, he ultimately won re-election the following year by a landslide, with many polls citing and analysts crediting his bipartisanship approach to disaster management as the state rebuilt from Hurricane Sandy’s damage.
Prior to Hurricane Ian’s approach, DeSantis raised eyebrows when he mentioned that he had yet to hear from Biden, but in the days that followed, Biden and DeSantis removed their verbal sparring gloves which had been in heavy use after illegal immigrants were flown to Martha’s Vineyard.
LEAD VS. CRIST WAS GROWING PRIOR TO IAN LANDFALL
Earlier today, Spectrum News and Sienna College published results from their latest poll, which showed DeSantis’ ahead of Charlie Crist, 49 percent to 41 percent. The poll sample size was small, and surveyed only 669 likely Florida voters across the state, but it was conducted from Sept. 18-25, before Hurricane Ian struck the state. Since the storm’s impact, DeSantis has been proactively addressing the public, hosting multiple press conferences per day, with no notable gaffes or stumbles. The only nationally-known criticism levied at DeSantis regarding the storm surrounds Lee County’s comparatively late mandatory evacuation order, but as DeSantis noted, forecasters were projecting the storm to strike either the panhandle or the Tampa Bay area as late the day prior to landfall.
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