Rubio and Florida Republicans Have Statistical Edge for 2022 Midterm
In Congresswoman Val Demings’ race vs. Florida’s senior Senator Marco Rubio, her only chance to upset Rubio is to improve Democrat performance in the Miami region, where her party surrendered two house seats in 2020 to new Republicans, Carlos Gimenez and Maria Elvira Salazar.
South Florida has always been the Democratic Party’s strongest section of the Sunshine State for voter support, but the dark shade of blue has faded since the Obama era.
Demings knows she will dominate Orlando within its city limits, along sections of Tampa with college towns. Take a close look at the Florida counties with the most Democrats. Their lead in Broward County, Miami-Dade County and Palm Beach County is impressive, but once you analyze other large counties, you see where their lead not only dwindles, but becomes a deficit. Demings’ can’t win without reversing the recent Hispanic shift to Republican support in South Florida and win the vast majority of independent voters where Republicans have a slim lead in registered voters.
The issue of abortion will energize more voters who are already staunchly in Demings face, but no data suggests that abortion will overtake economic concerns as the leading issue or improve her performance with white middle-aged men or college educated men, the demographic where she must make inroads to erode Rubio’s most reliable base.
While abortion will be among the top issues motivating voters, Florida doesn’t have any constitutional amendment with confusing language about abortion restrictions on its ballot like the one in Kansas.
The economy can’t recover quickly enough to drop from its rein as the most pressing issue. Car loan payment delinquencies and credit card debt averages are at the highest level in a decade, and inflation is still hitting hard.
Ironically both Rubio and Demings grew up with mothers who were maids, so both can relate to hospitality industry workers feeling the economic pinch. Typically, Demings, or any Democrat, would pander to blue collar industrial workers with her family back story, but with Democrats controlling the White House and the Senate she seeks to join, Demings can’t afford to be considered part of the problem when it comes to the economic downturn suffered during Biden’s first term, particularly this year’s severe dropoff.
While it’s fair to categorize 2022 as an outlier year due to the recent Roe vs. Wade ruling, there’s one undeniable fact about elections without Presidential candidates on the ballot: The most consistent voting demographic age group is voters over 50. They’re not going to have much concern about abortion while they are having a hard time paying just to put food in their stomach, especially senior citizens living on fixed incomes in a state where housing costs are among the highest in the nation.
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