Recent whispers about Casey DeSantis considering a run for governor of Florida in 2026 may not be what they seem. While some might assume it’s about her own political ambitions, but I have my own theory: Ron DeSantis is using the speculation as a trial balloon to assess his own prospects in the 2028 Republican presidential primary. Ron DeSantis understands that his path back to the national stage requires learning from 2024’s failures.
He needs to measure his strength against a Trump-endorsed candidate in a Republican primary—without having to put himself on the ballot just yet. That’s where Casey DeSantis comes in. If she runs for governor in 2026, her biggest obstacle to the nomination would be Congressman Byron Donalds, who received Trump’s enthusiastic endorsement before he had even officially declared his candidacy. While Donalds is not Trump, that endorsement alone makes him the de facto choice for Trump’s loyal base. In this way, a DeSantis vs. Donalds primary would mirror the dynamics of the 2024 GOP presidential race, where Ron DeSantis struggled against Trump’s overwhelming influence. The difference is, this time, Ron can sit back and observe.
If you don’t think Trump can pull a primary candidate for a statewide office down when his approval is low, just ask David Perdue, the Trump-endorsed gubernatorial candidate who lost in a 52-point landslide in Georgia, or Herschel Walker, who lost his bid for Senate in the same state, despite Trump’s endorsement.
If Casey could stay within winning distance in a GOP primary against a Trump-endorsed candidate, it would signal that Trump’s influence—while still dominant—might not be insurmountable. It would also provide valuable insight into what messages and strategies resonate with Republican primary voters in a post-Trump era. On the flip side, if Casey loses to Donalds, Ron would have to seriously reconsider his own viability in 2028. That race would demonstrate that the DeSantis name alone isn’t enough to overcome a Trump-backed opponent, even in Florida, the state where Ron has built his brand. Ron’s biggest challenge in 2028 won’t just be Trumpism—it will be Trump’s potential successors.
If Donald Trump Jr. enters the race, DeSantis could find himself in third place behind him and JD Vance. But if Trump Jr. sits out, DeSantis’ main rival would likely be Vance, Trump’s current VP pick. And as history has shown, a vice president doesn’t always get a guaranteed endorsement from their former boss (ask Mike Pence). If Trump’s popularity begins to fade by 2028, Vance may have to slightly distance himself, much like Al Gore did from Bill Clinton in 2000. That could give DeSantis an opening to argue that his executive experience as governor is more valuable than Vance’s short tenure in the Senate.
The GOP primaries in both 2016 and 2024 showed that Trump won key states by pluralities, thanks to a divided field. If DeSantis wants to avoid a repeat of 2024, he needs to game out the possibilities early. Testing the waters with Casey in 2026 lets him do just that—without the personal risk of running himself. In the end, Casey DeSantis’ rumored bid for governor may not just be about her future. It may be the first move in Ron DeSantis’ long-term plan to reclaim relevance in 2028. Whether that strategy succeeds or fails will depend on how much control Trump still holds over the Republican electorate two years from now.
