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For nearly a decade, Florida has been considered a “reliably red” state for political candidates, but recent decisions by the state supreme courts and dramatic shifts in certain economic areas could put the Sunshine State back into the national spotlight in November.


1. Abortion and Marijuana Amendments

Recreational marijuana use and abortion access amendments are both on Florida voters’ 2024 election ballots. Florida’s Supreme Court finalized these amendments earlier this month, completely changing the forecast for turnout among young voters. Prior to those amendments being on the ballot, Democrats faced an uphill battle to persuade disillusioned younger voters and independent voters to turn out.

2. GOP Resource Spreading

Even if Trump wins the state for a third time, it may come at a cost for Republicans in other states. The millions of dollars Trump’s campaign will have to spend on get-out-the-vote efforts to counter an uptick in Florida’s youth vote are precious funds that the GOP would otherwise have devoted to swing states, such as North Carolina, Michigan, and Arizona.

3. Property Insurance Costs

Economic issues are already a major issue for the 2024 campaign. Since Ron DeSantis’ landslide victory in 2022, property insurance rates have skyrocketed for millions of Floridians. While many culprits can be blamed, it’s not unreasonable to assume that many voters will hold the party in power accountable. Even if only five percent of independent voters change their vote based on frustration over property tax, that could be enough to flip the state blue.

Matt O'Hern

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